Big East Update: Week 13

Big East Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big East enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1531.5 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.62 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Creighton

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1620.9 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.87 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

DePaul

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1470.3 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.84 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Georgetown

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1511.3 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.12 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Marquette

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1543.7 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.81 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Providence

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1476.7 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.61 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Seton Hall

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1553.8 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.45 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

St John’s

Record: 16-5 | Elo: 1720.4 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.07 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UConn

Record: 21-1 | Elo: 1785.8 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.96 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Villanova

Record: 16-5 | Elo: 1638.9 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.81 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Xavier

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1567.3 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.21 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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TagsBE Big East Big East Conference

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