Big Sky Update: Week 13

Big Sky Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big Sky enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 5-17 | Elo: 1381.4 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.14 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Idaho

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1459.4 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.24 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Idaho State

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1430.7 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.88 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Montana

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1562.0 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.80 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Montana State

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1503.4 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.02 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

N Arizona

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1380.1 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.28 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1518.3 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.10 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Portland State

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1537.0 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.27 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Sacramento St

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1347.9 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.71 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Weber State

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1437.5 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.25 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC
TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC

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