MAAC Update: Week 13

MAAC Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1342.0 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.54 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1482.7 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.11 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Iona

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1533.5 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.29 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1416.0 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.82 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Marist

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1561.6 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.67 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Merrimack

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1576.2 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.66 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1489.9 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.73 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 5-17 | Elo: 1351.1 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.17 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1569.3 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.80 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Rider

Record: 3-18 | Elo: 1374.4 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.41 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1455.8 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.81 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Siena

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1520.7 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.66 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

St Peter’s

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1506.7 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.35 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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