Mid-American Update: Week 13

Mid-American Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 18-4 | Elo: 1678.6 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.54 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Ball State

Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1397.2 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.56 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Bowling Green

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1466.7 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.41 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1435.3 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.69 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Cent Michigan

Record: 7-15 | Elo: 1400.8 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.15 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

E Michigan

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1430.8 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.82 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Kent State

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1606.5 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.57 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Miami (OH)

Record: 22-0 | Elo: 1668.1 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.80 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

N Illinois

Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1336.8 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.93 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1502.5 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.07 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Toledo

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1530.8 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.52 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UMass

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1469.9 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.17 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

W Michigan

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1402.9 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.34 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC
TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference

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