Sun Belt Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 26 – February 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, C. Carolina, Louisiana, James Madison, Marshall
Trending Down (Efficiency): Arkansas State, Ga Southern, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1538.5 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.46 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arkansas State

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1553.3 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.80 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

C. Carolina

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1452.0 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.24 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Ga Southern

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1480.5 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.02 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Georgia State

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1439.2 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.96 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1516.9 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.88 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Louisiana

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1417.0 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.75 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1539.5 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.21 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Old Dominion

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1412.6 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.27 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

South Alabama

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1579.1 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.38 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1429.8 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.19 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Texas State

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1479.1 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.70 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Troy

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1591.9 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.60 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UL Monroe

Record: 3-20 | Elo: 1249.5 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.63 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference