Big 12 Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 02 – February 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech
Trending Down (Efficiency): Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, BYU, UCF

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 23-0 | Elo: 1795.7 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.47 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1516.7 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.02 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

BYU

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1684.1 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.54 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1602.7 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.78 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Cincinnati

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1551.9 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.76 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Colorado

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1545.2 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.68 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Houston

Record: 21-2 | Elo: 1836.7 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.01 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 21-2 | Elo: 1743.3 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.48 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Kansas

Record: 18-5 | Elo: 1710.8 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.54 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Kansas State

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1508.1 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.59 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma State

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1588.1 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.64 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

TCU

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1575.1 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.75 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas Tech

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1718.0 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.22 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UCF

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1628.3 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.36 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Utah

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1476.0 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.62 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1574.9 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.39 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference