Big West Update: Week 14

The Big West enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

• Week Dates: February 02 – February 08, 2026
• Trending Up (Efficiency): Cal Poly, CSU Fullerton, CSU Northridge, Hawai’i, Long Beach St
• Trending Down (Efficiency): UC Davis, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, CSU Bakersfield, UC San Diego

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Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1368.5 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.66 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1419.4 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.00 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

CSU Northridge

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1542.7 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.63 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Cal Poly

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1405.8 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.12 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 17-5 | Elo: 1550.1 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.94 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 8-16 | Elo: 1369.4 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.44 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1516.2 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.18 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UC Irvine

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1641.6 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.85 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UC Riverside

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1440.8 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.27 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UC San Diego

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1593.9 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.53 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UCSB

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1551.8 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.57 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

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Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

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Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

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Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

• eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
• TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
• OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
• FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

• Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
• Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

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Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.