Coastal Update: Week 14

Coastal Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Coastal enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 11-13 | Elo: 1474.2 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.63 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Charleston

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1623.0 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.00 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Drexel

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1509.9 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.19 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Elon

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1455.3 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.27 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Hampton

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1455.7 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.70 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Hofstra

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1543.9 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.45 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Monmouth

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1486.3 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.47 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

NC A&T

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1357.4 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.46 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Northeastern

Record: 6-17 | Elo: 1418.0 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.92 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Stony Brook

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1474.9 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.70 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Towson

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1551.2 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.19 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 19-4 | Elo: 1655.4 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.69 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

William & Mary

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1516.5 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.99 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Colonial teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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