Conference USA Update: Week 14

Conference USA Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Conference USA enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 7-15 | Elo: 1426.2 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.55 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

FIU

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1414.4 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.13 (ranked 196 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Jacksonville St

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1531.9 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.39 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kennesaw State

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1525.5 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.39 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

LA Tech

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1528.4 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.64 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Liberty

Record: 20-3 | Elo: 1692.4 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.10 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1500.8 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.05 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Missouri State

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1459.6 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.57 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

New Mexico St

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1461.1 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.74 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Sam Houston

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1560.2 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.26 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UTEP

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1436.5 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.12 (ranked 270 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

W Kentucky

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1499.1 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.97 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Conference USA teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA CUSA

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