Patriot League Update: Week 14

Patriot League Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1474.8 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.20 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Army

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1393.7 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.83 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Boston U

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1416.7 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.68 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bucknell

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1417.3 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.15 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Colgate

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1521.4 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.67 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Holy Cross

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1358.3 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.14 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Lafayette

Record: 8-16 | Elo: 1373.7 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.67 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Lehigh

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1390.9 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.66 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1360.7 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.01 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Navy

Record: 19-6 | Elo: 1541.9 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.10 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT
TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League

Leave a Reply