Southern Update: Week 14

Southern Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1521.8 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.24 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

ETSU

Record: 18-7 | Elo: 1573.4 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.05 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Furman

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1569.6 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.15 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Mercer

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1502.0 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.29 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Samford

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1548.5 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.09 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

The Citadel

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1320.2 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.15 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UNCG

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1477.0 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.04 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

VMI

Record: 4-19 | Elo: 1304.0 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.22 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

W Carolina

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1407.2 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.67 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Wofford

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1568.7 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.44 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON
TagsSOCON Southern Southern Conference

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