Summit League Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Summit League enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Summit League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 02 – February 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): North Dakota, Denver, North Dakota St, Omaha, South Dakota St
Trending Down (Efficiency): Oral Roberts, South Dakota, UM Kansas City

Team-by-Team Analysis

Denver

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1418.4 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.09 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Dakota

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1449.3 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.72 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

North Dakota St

Record: 20-6 | Elo: 1597.7 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.14 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Omaha

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1474.5 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.07 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Oral Roberts

Record: 5-20 | Elo: 1302.8 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.68 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Dakota

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1469.2 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.59 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

South Dakota St

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1480.7 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.44 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

St. Thomas – Minnesota

Record: 20-6 | Elo: 1597.8 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.66 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UM Kansas City

Record: 3-20 | Elo: 1304.8 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.76 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Summit League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySUM

TagsSUM Summit Summit League