SWAC Update: Week 14

SWAC Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SWAC enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1362.9 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.83 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Alabama A&M

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1380.1 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.61 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Alabama State

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1409.2 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.72 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Alcorn State

Record: 4-18 | Elo: 1381.7 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.96 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1502.4 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.33 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Florida A&M

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1379.6 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.10 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Grambling

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1435.5 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.15 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Jackson State

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1438.8 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.03 (ranked 361 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Miss Valley St

Record: 1-22 | Elo: 1162.3 (ranked 370 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -41.91 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

PV A&M

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1312.7 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.42 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Southern

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1467.5 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.73 (ranked 319 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas Southern

Record: 6-14 | Elo: 1407.8 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.16 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SWAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC
TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC

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