Atlantic 10 Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

• Davidson’s shooting efficiency has improved versus weaker competition, which is a positive trend despite facing tougher opponents.

• Dayton’s struggling shooting performance has hindered their ability to convert scoring opportunities and put pressure on their defense versus stronger competition.

• Duquesne’s rebounding performance has been inconsistent across all matchups, making it difficult to identify a clear trend.

• George Mason’s turnover issues have worsened versus stronger competition, leading to difficulties sustaining momentum and creating scoring chances.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Atlantic 10 Defensive Trends: Week 15 Analysis

The Atlantic 10 Conference teams exhibit notable defensive trends. Here are the top defensive trends to watch:

• Dayton’s Opp Shooting is a Problem: Dayton’s defense struggles to contain opponents from shooting effectively, which could spell trouble if not addressed soon versus stronger competition.
• Fordham’s Opp Turnovers is a Struggle: Fordham’s defense is forcing fewer turnovers from their opponents, making it challenging for them to gain possession versus weaker competition.
• Richmond’s Def Reb Pct is Worsening: Richmond’s ability to secure rebounds is declining against all teams, demonstrating their defensive struggles in this area versus both stronger and weaker competition.
• Davidson’s Opp Turnovers is Improving: Davidson’s defense is forcing more turnovers from their opponents, making it easier for them to gain possession versus both stronger and weaker competition.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 09 – February 15, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Davidson, Saint Joe’s, Saint Louis, St Bonaventure
Trending Down (Efficiency): Dayton, Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason, G Washington

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1518.9 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.74 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Dayton

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1613.2 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.73 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Duquesne

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1539.0 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.05 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Fordham

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1460.9 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.32 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

G Washington

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1527.0 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.01 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

George Mason

Record: 21-5 | Elo: 1653.4 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.87 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 7-18 | Elo: 1410.2 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.54 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 6-20 | Elo: 1456.8 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.60 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Richmond

Record: 14-12 | Elo: 1469.6 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.72 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1562.7 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.37 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Saint Louis

Record: 24-1 | Elo: 1678.4 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.75 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

St Bonaventure

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1537.8 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.15 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

URI

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1509.2 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.08 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

VCU

Record: 20-6 | Elo: 1696.1 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.84 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Atlantic 10 Week 15 Recap: Trends to Watch

The Atlantic 10 conference has reached its midpoint, with several teams showcasing notable trends in key offensive and defensive metrics.

Davidson’s improved shooting percentage versus stronger competition, trending up from 0.54, is a positive trend that indicates the team is building momentum. Additionally, Davidson’s ability to secure their own rebounds versus weaker competition, with an upward trend in off reb pct from 0.274, suggests they are finding their footing.

Dayton’s struggle with shooting percentage versus stronger competition, trending down from 0.52, highlights a problem that needs attention. Furthermore, Dayton’s increased turnovers versus weaker competition, experiencing an upward trend from 0.163, indicates a struggle for the team to maintain possession.

Fordham and George Mason are showcasing defensive efforts by forcing more turnovers against their opponents versus stronger competition, trending up from 0.172. Both teams are also allowing fewer shots to fall against them versus weaker competition, trending down in opp shooting pct from 0.49.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference