American Update: Week 15

American Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Top Offensive Trends in Week 15 of the American Conference

• Memphis’s Shooting Improves Significantly: Memphis has shown a notable increase in shooting efficiency versus weaker competition, particularly against teams ranked below them. This uptick in scoring potential is contributing to their improved performance.
• Temple’s Shooting Struggle Continues: Temple’s inability to shoot effectively remains a significant problem, especially versus stronger competition. Their shooting woes have hindered their ability to capitalize on opportunities, making it essential for the team to address this issue.
• ECU’s Balanced Performance Boosts Offense: ECU’s surge in shooting performance has been complemented by a decrease in turnovers, resulting in a more formidable offense. This balanced approach enables them to compete effectively versus stronger competition.
• USF’s Shooting Struggle Lingers: USF’s shooting struggles persist, particularly against teams with better records. Their inability to adapt and adjust their strategy accordingly hinders their scoring potential.

Strongest Defensive Trends

• ECU’s Opp Shooting percentage, which has shown improvement versus weaker competition, indicates that the team is better equipped to contain its opponents’ offense compared to stronger teams.

• Tulane’s Opp Shooting percentage, which remains good versus stronger competition, suggests that the Green Wave have successfully stifled their opponents’ scoring prowess in these matchups.

• Tulsa’s Opp Turnovers indicate a challenge for the Golden Hurricane in forcing turnovers and creating defensive stops, particularly against weaker teams.

• ECU’s Defensive Rebound Pct has shown improvement versus weaker competition, indicating that the team is more effective at securing rebounds in these games.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1467.8 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.10 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

ECU

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1443.8 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.65 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

FAU

Record: 14-12 | Elo: 1546.1 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.12 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Memphis

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1614.1 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.74 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1579.9 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.10 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1421.6 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.88 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Temple

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1524.4 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.31 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tulane

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1541.8 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.19 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tulsa

Record: 20-6 | Elo: 1556.6 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.30 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UAB

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1595.0 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.57 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

USF

Record: 18-8 | Elo: 1592.1 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.99 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UTSA

Record: 5-20 | Elo: 1342.4 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.46 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1557.8 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.54 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 15 American College Basketball Analysis

As the conference season nears its end, teams are either solidifying their momentum or risking a downturn in performance. The trending indicators have been instrumental in identifying which teams are genuinely improving versus those struggling with unsustainable trends.

Offensive Trends to Highlight

Eastern Carolina’s (ECU) shooting percentage has improved 1% versus weaker competition, indicating a positive trend in team performance. ECU’s ability to maintain its scoring efficiency is noteworthy, particularly compared to other teams.

Tulane’s performance has been marked by an improvement in its own shooting percentage versus stronger competition.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

ECU’s defense has improved significantly, as evidenced by a decrease in opponents’ shooting percentage 3% versus weaker competition. However, ECU struggles with forcing turnovers against stronger competition.

Tulane’s defense has shown signs of improvement, with a notable decline in opponent shooting percentage versus stronger competition.

Conclusion

The trending indicators offer valuable insights into teams’ performance trends. As we move forward, it will be essential for coaches and analysts to closely monitor these metrics to identify potential areas of improvement or concern. The data suggests that Eastern Carolina is making strides on both ends of the court, while other teams may face challenges in their respective performances.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC American
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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