Big South Update: Week 15

Big South Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

HoopSci.com Exclusive: Top Offensive Trends in Big South Conference

As we analyze the data from Week 15 of the Big South conference, several trends stand out that could influence the teams’ chances of success on the court. Here are the top offensive trends:

• Charleston So’s turnovers is worsening versus stronger competition, creating a problem for their offense as they struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
• USC Upstate’s Turnovers is Worsening, which contributes to their struggles with maintaining possession.
• Gardner-Webb’s shooting is improving, which could boost their overall offense and increase their chances of winning games.
• High Point’s Off Reb Pct is worsening versus stronger competition, posing a threat to opponents’ ability to secure rebounds and create second-chance scoring opportunities.

Strongest Defensive Trends

• Charleston So’s defense is struggling to secure rebounds and control the paint versus stronger competition, indicating a problem with its ability to dominate in tougher matchups.
• Gardner-Webb gives opponents too many second chances at scoring versus weaker competition, suggesting that its defense needs improvement in easier matchups.
• Longwood’s Opp Shooting percentage is improving versus weaker competition, indicating that the team has tightened up its defense and made it harder for opponents to score against lesser teams.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1382.3 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.76 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 3-24 | Elo: 1311.8 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -39.69 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

High Point

Record: 24-4 | Elo: 1666.2 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.74 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Longwood

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1456.1 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.27 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Presbyterian

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1419.3 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.47 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Radford

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1486.1 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.57 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UNC Asheville

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1489.4 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.72 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

USC Upstate

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1351.9 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.63 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Winthrop

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1593.1 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.74 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big South Teams Show Mixed Trends in Week 15 Analysis

As the Big South conference enters its final stretch, several teams are demonstrating notable trends in their performance. Using MACD trending indicators to analyze key metrics, we can identify which teams are experiencing genuine improvement and those struggling with unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Note:

  • USC Upstate’s turnover rate is increasing (0.17) versus weaker competition, suggesting a worsening trend in this aspect of their game.
  • Charleston Southern’s turnover rate is trending up strongly (0.17800000000000002) versus stronger competition, indicating a struggle with managing the ball effectively and creating problems for their offense.
  • Gardner-Webb is showing improvement in its shooting percentage (0.48) versus weaker competition.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

  • Charleston Southern’s defensive rebounding percentage is trending down strongly (0.736) versus weaker competition, indicating that the Cougars are allowing more offensive boards and creating problems for their defense.
  • Gardner-Webb is struggling on defense, with their defensive rebounding percentage in decline (0.632) versus stronger competition.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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