Big West Update: Week 15

Big West Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  • CSU Fullerton’s turnover rate is improving, contributing to their offense’s efficiency.
  • CSU Northridge’s shooting is a significant problem, as it is struggling against weaker competition.
  • CSU Fullerton’s rebounding percentage versus stronger competition is a struggle.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Top Defensive Trends in the Big West

As we near the end of Week 15 in the Big West conference, several teams are making strides on the defensive end. Here are the top trends to watch:

• CSU Fullerton’s Forced Turnovers: CSU Fullerton’s defense is stifling opponents with a significant number of forced turnovers versus weaker competition.
• UC Davis’s Defensive Rebounding and Forced Turnovers: UC Davis’s defensive rebounding has improved, allowing them to maintain possession and limit scoring opportunities for their opponents versus stronger competition. Additionally, the team is forcing more turnovers against weaker teams.
• Hawai’i’s Opponents’ Free-Throw Shooting Struggles: Hawai’i’s defense continues to struggle, as their opponents are struggling at the free-throw line, which may be a problem area that needs attention from coaches and players alike versus stronger competition.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1360.8 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.08 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1427.7 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.44 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

CSU Northridge

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1550.3 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.00 (ranked 235 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Cal Poly

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1430.7 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.41 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Hawai’i

Record: 18-6 | Elo: 1550.2 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.76 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1354.2 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.31 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1514.6 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.73 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UC Irvine

Record: 17-9 | Elo: 1631.0 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.64 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UC Riverside

Record: 8-19 | Elo: 1427.6 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.28 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UC San Diego

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1602.7 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.63 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UCSB

Record: 17-9 | Elo: 1550.3 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.68 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big West Teams Showcased in Week 15 Analysis

As the Big West season progresses, teams are being put to the test. A closer look at key offensive and defensive trends reveals which squads are making genuine strides and which might be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

CSU Fullerton’s turnover numbers have improved significantly this season, with a trend downward versus stronger competition (from 14.6 to 12.8). This decline suggests that the team is becoming more efficient in ball control, allowing them to maintain possession on offense. However, CSU Fullerton faces challenges with its offense rebounding percentage, which has decreased versus weaker competition.

CSU Northridge’s shooting has shown an increase in efficiency from the field versus stronger competition (72.2% to 75.6%). This trend suggests that the team is finding its mark more consistently. However, CSU Northridge also struggles to secure second-chance opportunities on offense, as their off-rebound percentage has declined versus weaker competition.

Defensive Trends

On the defensive side of the ball, both CSU Fullerton and CSU Northridge have made notable strides in forcing turnovers versus stronger competition. CSU Fullerton’s opponents are surrendering more turnovers than usual this season, indicating a strong push from the team to disrupt their opponents’ possession. Similarly, CSU Northridge has also seen an increase in forced turnovers from its opponents versus stronger competition.

The trend for Hawai’i is less encouraging on defense. Opponents have been shooting at an elevated rate against them versus stronger competition. UC Davis has shown improvement in forcing turnovers versus weaker competition.

Summary

In conclusion, CSU Fullerton and CSU Northridge are both making positive strides on offense. However, CSU Fullerton faces challenges with its offense rebounding percentage versus weaker competition. CSU Northridge struggles to secure second-chance opportunities on offense. Hawai’i’s defense is vulnerable to opponent shooting versus stronger competition.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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