Coastal Update: Week 15

Coastal Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Top Offensive Trends in Coastal Conference

The Coastal Conference has seen its fair share of struggles on offense, with several teams exhibiting concerning trends. Here are the top 4 strongest negative offensive trends in the conference:

  • Hofstra’s shooting has been a significant problem versus weaker competition and has hindered their overall performance.
  • Elon’s shooting is a struggle versus stronger competition, making it increasingly difficult for them to put up points and contribute to their team’s offense.
  • Drexel’s turnover issues have led to lost possession of the ball versus stronger competition, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities.
  • Northeastern’s rebounding has been a problem versus weaker competition.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  • Charleston’s Opp Shooting is Improving versus weaker competition, indicating a positive trend in limiting opposing teams’ scoring effectiveness. However, it’s essential to note that this trend might not necessarily reflect Charleston’s own defensive performance, as they may face weaker competition in some instances and stronger competition in others.
  • Northeastern: Opp Turnovers is Worsening (Forcing FEWER turnovers) represents a struggle for the team to contain opponents’ offense versus stronger competition, allowing them to shoot more effectively. This suggests that Northeastern’s defense needs improvement to limit scoring opportunities.
  • Towson: Def Reb Pct shows a positive trend in defensive rebounding versus both weaker and stronger competition, indicating sustained performance in this area. Analyzing this trend in context is crucial to understand whether it will continue to be a strength for the team.
  • UNC Wilmington has struggled with Opp Shooting, which is worsening versus weaker competition, allowing opposing teams to shoot more effectively even against weaker opponents. This represents a problem for the team’s defense in limiting scoring opportunities.
  • Charleston: Def Reb Pct is a positive trend, excelling at defensive rebounding versus both weaker and stronger competition. It’s crucial to analyze this trend in context, considering whether this performance will be sustained as the season progresses.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1464.9 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.68 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Charleston

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1606.0 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.47 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Drexel

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1496.5 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.67 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Elon

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1467.0 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.92 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Hampton

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1442.9 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.40 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Hofstra

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1553.8 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.80 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Monmouth

Record: 14-12 | Elo: 1508.5 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.26 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

NC A&T

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1370.1 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.21 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Northeastern

Record: 6-18 | Elo: 1407.9 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.34 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stony Brook

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1469.6 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.24 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Towson

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1547.8 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.33 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 22-4 | Elo: 1674.7 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.46 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

William & Mary

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1511.9 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.70 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 15 Colonial Analysis: A Data-Driven Look at Key Trends

As the Colonial Athletic Association’s regular season reaches its climax, we examine the key offensive and defensive trends that have emerged in Week 15. Our analysis focuses on specific metrics that provide insights into which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Highlight

  1. Drexel’s offense rebounding percentage has seen a decline, averaging 0.288 versus weaker competition, indicating the team struggles with securing rebounds against tougher opponents.
  2. Elon’s shooting struggles have continued, with a decrease in shooting percentage currently sitting at 0.54 versus weaker competition. This trend suggests that the team is facing challenges in scoring efficiency in games against less formidable teams.
  3. Northeastern’s offense rebounding percentage has seen an improvement, averaging 0.412 versus stronger competition.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

  1. Charleston’s defensive performance against opponent shooting has shown a decline, with opponents averaging 0.49 versus weaker competition. However, this trend indicates that the team is struggling to contain scoring threats in games against less dominant teams.
  2. Northeastern’s ability to force turnovers has improved, now averaging 0.128 versus stronger competition.
  3. Charleston’s defensive rebounding percentage has seen a decline, currently sitting at 0.717 versus weaker competition. This trend suggests that the team is allowing opponents more opportunities to secure rebounds and score in games against less dominant teams.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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