Horizon Update: Week 15

Horizon Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Offensive Trends Highlight Key Areas of Improvement

As we dive into Week 15 in the Horizon Conference, several teams are displaying notable trends that could significantly impact their chances moving forward.

  • Cleveland State’s shooting has improved versus weaker competition, but they struggle with offense rebounding percentage worsening versus stronger competition.
  • Detroit Mercy’s shooting is showing signs of improvement versus weaker competition, although they must address their turnover issues worsening versus stronger competition.
  • Green Bay’s shooting has been inconsistent versus stronger competition, leading to a notable drop in performance that could hinder their chances against top teams.
  • IUPUI’s offense rebounding percentage has improved versus weaker competition, but this trend may be offset by their inability to maintain it versus stronger competition.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  • Cleveland State’s opponent shooting has worsened versus stronger competition, posing a concern for their defense.
  • IUPUI has struggled to limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities on the glass versus weaker competition.
  • Wright State has improved their defensive rebounding rate versus weaker competition, but this trend does not apply against stronger teams.
  • The Vikings are struggling to contain opponents’ scoring, which is a problem for Cleveland State’s defense.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1451.9 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.48 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1401.6 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.83 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Green Bay

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1431.8 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.19 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

IUPUI

Record: 7-21 | Elo: 1291.5 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.56 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 11-17 | Elo: 1464.8 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.58 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

N Kentucky

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1498.3 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.86 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1535.6 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.39 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1509.8 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.08 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1565.1 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.57 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1522.2 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.30 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1482.6 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.23 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Horizon League Wrap-up: Key Trends in Week 15

As we conclude our analysis of the Horizon League for Week 15, several teams are displaying notable improvements and declines across various metrics. This week’s focus will be on the most significant trends among key offensive and defensive categories.

Cleveland State’s Resurgence

Cleveland State is exhibiting a strong upward trend in shooting, with their season average increasing as they improve their scoring capabilities (Season Avg: 0.55). Conversely, their turnover rate has decreased significantly versus weaker competition (Season Avg: 0.168), indicating a more efficient offense.

However, Cleveland State’s defensive performance is showing signs of struggle versus stronger competition, as opponents’ shooting percentage increases (Season Avg: 0.56).

Detroit Mercy’s Upward Swing

Detroit Mercy’s shooting trend is also moving upwards versus weaker competition (Season Avg: 0.49), indicating an improvement in their scoring capabilities.

On the defensive side, Detroit Mercy has seen a slight decrease in turnover rate versus stronger competition (Season Avg: 0.168) since Week 14, but this trend does not directly reflect on their ability to defend against opposing offenses.

Key Trends and Insights

The Horizon League teams’ progress will be closely monitored, with a focus on identifying those genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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