MAAC Update: Week 15

MAAC Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  • Iona’s turnover reduction trend is struggling, contributing to their decreased scoring opportunities versus stronger competition and overall team efficiency.
  • Manhattan’s turnovers are becoming a problem versus stronger competition, making it challenging for them to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring chances against weaker teams.
  • Niagara’s shooting accuracy has improved significantly versus weaker competition, allowing them to convert more of their attempts and boost their overall offense.
  • Quinnipiac’s shooting struggles are contributing to a decline in their team’s overall performance, making it difficult for them to find consistency in their scoring versus stronger competition.

Strongest Defensive Trends

MAAC Teams Showing Defensive Strength

The top defensive trends in the MAAC after Week 15 are:

  • Canisius’ rebounding has turned a corner, showing improvement in securing boards versus weaker competition.
  • Iona is struggling with their opponents’ shooting, which poses a significant problem for the team as they face stronger competition.
  • Marist’s opponents have been having trouble with their shooting, a key struggle that could plague them further against stiffer competition.
  • Manhattan is tightening up its defense, putting pressure on opponents and limiting second-chance opportunities versus weaker teams.
  • Niagara’s improved rebounding has made it harder for teams to secure boards against weaker teams.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 8-19 | Elo: 1314.8 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.46 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Fairfield

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1497.0 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.22 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Iona

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1507.6 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.35 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 12-16 | Elo: 1435.1 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.69 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Marist

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1535.6 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.78 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Merrimack

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1612.1 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.52 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1502.6 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.24 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Niagara

Record: 7-19 | Elo: 1356.2 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.89 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Quinnipiac

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1573.6 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.51 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Rider

Record: 3-22 | Elo: 1350.2 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.52 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Sacred Heart

Record: 12-16 | Elo: 1450.2 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.65 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Siena

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1523.3 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.84 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1521.7 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.61 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

MAAC Teams’ Key Trends and Insights from Week 15

As the MAAC season progresses, several teams are showcasing notable enhancements in key areas. Our analysis identifies which teams are genuinely advancing their performances versus those potentially maintaining unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Improvements:

  1. Iona: Demonstrates a decrease in turnovers versus weaker competition.
  2. Manhattan: Exhibits a decrease in turnovers versus stronger competition, indicating enhanced team discipline and efficiency.

Niagara’s Contrasting Performance:

While Niagara shows an increase in shooting percentage versus weaker competition, their performance on the defensive glass worsens, with a decreasing off-rebound percentage versus stronger competition. This struggle on the defensive glass may hinder their overall performance.

Defensive Stalwarts:

  1. Canisius: Demonstrates a marked improvement in defensive rebounding percentage versus stronger competition.
  2. Manhattan: Exhibits a decrease in turnovers versus weaker competition, indicating potential stability in their offense.

Marist’s Defensive Enhancement:

Marist showcases an improvement on the defensive glass, with a rising defensive rebounding percentage versus stronger competition. This development may contribute to their overall success.

These key trends will shape our understanding of which teams are genuinely advancing and those potentially maintaining unsustainable momentum. We’ll revisit this analysis next week, armed with updated data to refine our insights.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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