Northeast Update: Week 15

Northeast Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  • Wagner’s improving shooting performance versus weaker competition has contributed to their strong offense output.
  • St Francis (PA)’s improved shooting has had a positive impact on their offense, particularly against stronger teams.
  • Le Moyne’s worsening turnovers posing a problem for their offense struggles versus stronger competition.
  • Stonehill’s worsening shooting against weaker teams has significantly contributed to their overall offense struggles.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Northeast Conference Defensive Trends: Week 15

• Cent Conn St’s Opp Shooting versus weaker competition has decreased to 37%, a negative trend – Problematic
• Fair Dickinson’s Opp Turnovers have increased to 17, a negative trend – Struggle
• Brooklyn’s Opp Shooting is tightening up, but still lags behind stronger teams
• St Francis (PA)’s Opp Shooting versus weaker competition has improved slightly


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 17-9 | Elo: 1519.7 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.24 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Cent Conn St

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1539.2 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.97 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Chicago State

Record: 6-21 | Elo: 1308.4 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.57 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1373.0 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.87 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Le Moyne

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1424.6 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.10 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Mercyhurst

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1448.0 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.26 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

New Haven

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1456.8 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.26 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Francis (PA)

Record: 6-20 | Elo: 1333.6 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.35 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Stonehill

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1360.7 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.44 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Wagner

Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1381.4 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.99 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Northeast Teams Show Varied Improvement in Week 15

As college basketball’s Northeast region continues to heat up, our analysis of MACD trending indicators reveals which teams are genuinely making strides and which may be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

  • Le Moyne’s offense rebound percentage has taken a hit this season versus weaker competition, with an average of -4.1% in Week 15.
  • Cent Conn St’s shooting has been inconsistent, with an opponent three-point percentage of 34.6% versus stronger competition in Week 15.

Defensive Trends

  • Fair Dickinson is making waves on defense, as their opponents’ shooting average has decreased significantly versus weaker competition, from 41.2% to 36.5%.
  • Cent Conn St’s performance on the defensive glass has improved, with a strong trend of limiting opponent rebound opportunities versus stronger competition.

Key Takeaways

In Week 15, several Northeast teams have demonstrated improvement in various areas. While some, like Le Moyne, face challenges on offense with a decline in rebounding efficiency versus weaker competition, others excel defensively with their opponents struggling to find the mark. As we move forward, it will be essential to monitor these trends to better understand which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing temporary momentum.

Next week’s analysis will continue to provide a comprehensive look at the Northeast region, offering further insights into the MACD trending indicators and their implications for each team.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC
TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference

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