America East Update: Week 16
February 24, 2026Strongest Offensive Trends
- Binghamton, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Binghamton’s offense has made notable strides in shooting efficiency, with a 45% improvement in three-point shooting percentage over their last five games, demonstrating a tangible shift towards increased consistency and accuracy.
- Binghamton, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – Binghamton’s struggles with scoring have been exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on points scored off turnovers, hindering its overall performance.
- Albany, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Albany’s struggles with securing rebounds on offense are reflected in its 34th-ranked off-rebounding percentage, contributing to a notable decline in its overall win-loss record this season.
- Albany, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Albany’s offense has struggled with inconsistent shooting efficiency, yet their ability to find the net remains a challenge.
- Binghamton, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Binghamton’s reduction in turnovers has emerged as a pivotal factor in their overall performance, effectively mitigating unnecessary possessions for opponents and thereby enhancing their scoring opportunities through sustained ball control.
Strongest Defensive Trends
- UNH, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.027 – The UNH Wildcats’ ability to secure rebounds on defense has allowed them to take control of games, making it difficult for opponents to gain momentum.
- UMass Lowell, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – UMass Lowell’s defense has struggled with allowing opponents to secure a significant share of rebounds, negatively impacting its overall performance on both ends of the court.
- Binghamton, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Binghamton’s struggles to secure defensive rebounds have led to a significant increase in opponents’ scoring opportunities, making it a pressing problem in crucial situations.
- Maine, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Maine’s improvement on defensive rebounding percentage has led to a more substantial presence under the boards compared to previous seasons.
- UMBC, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – UMBC’s inability to effectively stifle opponents’ shooting has been a recurring issue, contributing to its tendency to allow shots to be made on the court.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Albany, Binghamton, UMass Lowell, Vermont, Bryant
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Maine, UNH, UMBC
Team-by-Team Analysis
Albany
Record: 10-18 | Elo: 1408.6 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.55 (ranked 285 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Binghamton
Record: 4-23 | Elo: 1318.0 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.66 (ranked 340 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Bryant
Record: 8-19 | Elo: 1426.0 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.13 (ranked 341 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Maine
Record: 7-21 | Elo: 1394.4 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.08 (ranked 296 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
NJIT
Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1420.7 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.19 (ranked 279 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
UMBC
Record: 18-8 | Elo: 1499.3 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.91 (ranked 150 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
UMass Lowell
Record: 13-15 | Elo: 1463.7 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.32 (ranked 273 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
UNH
Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1351.9 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.95 (ranked 315 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Vermont
Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1570.2 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.78 (ranked 165 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
HoopSci.com Exclusive: America East Teams’ Key Trends and Insights
As we conclude our analysis of the America East teams for Week 16, let’s dive into the key trends that will help you better understand their performances. We’ll be focusing on the metrics provided by MACD trending indicators to identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.
Offensive Trends to Highlight
- The Albany Great Danes’ shooting has shown a consistent upward trend in Season Avg, highlighting their strong performance.
- Binghamton’s offense has demonstrated an increase in Season Avg, indicating significant growth.
- Maine’s Off Reb Pct is trending down, indicating a struggle in grabbing offensive boards.
Defensive Trends to Highlight
- New Hampshire’s Wildcats have demonstrated an uptick in defensive rebounding percentage, solidifying their strong defensive performance.
- Maine’s defensive rebounding percentage has shown improvement, marking a significant milestone for the Black Bears’ defense.
- Binghamton’s Def Reb Pct is trending down, indicating a worsening ability to grab defensive boards.
These trends will be crucial to follow as the season progresses, and we’ll continue to monitor them closely.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
