Big East Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Creighton, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – Creighton’s struggles with securing rebounds are contributing to its scoring woes, as the team’s inability to capitalize on second-chance opportunities hinders its ability to maintain a consistent offense, a problem exacerbated by its poor performance in terms of rebounding.
Creighton, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Creighton’s shooting has been a trend throughout their season, contributing to their team performance.
Butler, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Butler’s struggles with turnovers have been a persistent problem, hindering their performance and contributing to an overall increase in turnover issues.
Butler, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Butler’s field goal percentage has been a concern, struggling to find consistency and relying heavily on other team members to compensate for the resulting scoring drought.
DePaul, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – DePaul’s inconsistent shooting has been a major challenge contributing to their scoring issues, hindering their ability to consistently convert opportunities into points.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Georgetown, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Georgetown’s struggles on the defensive glass have enabled opponents to seize a significant advantage in rebounding, ultimately stifling their own team’s momentum and limiting scoring opportunities.
Butler, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Butler’s defense continues to struggle as its inability to effectively block shots and maintain a consistent defensive rotation allows opponents to exploit these weaknesses, contributing significantly to their scoring attacks.
DePaul, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – DePaul’s inability to limit opponents’ shooting opportunities has been a persistent problem, leading to increased scoring chances for opponents.
Providence, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Providence’s struggles to force turnovers against its opponents have become a pressing issue, potentially leading to a decline in team performance as it continues to see a trend of stifling opponents with an average of 12.5 turnovers allowed per game, significantly higher than the conference average.
DePaul, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – The Blue Demons’ stifling defense has been a struggle for opponents, forcing them to commit turnovers at an inflated rate, which is a problem for their ability to maintain possession and secure key stops.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Marquette, Providence, Xavier, UConn
Trending Down (Efficiency): Butler, Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Seton Hall

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1520.3 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.67 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Creighton

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1606.2 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.33 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

DePaul

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1471.5 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.94 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Georgetown

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1491.1 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.07 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Marquette

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1531.8 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.59 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Providence

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1493.2 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.77 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Seton Hall

Record: 18-9 | Elo: 1551.7 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.03 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

St John’s

Record: 22-5 | Elo: 1755.6 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.15 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UConn

Record: 25-3 | Elo: 1780.7 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.87 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Villanova

Record: 21-6 | Elo: 1669.2 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.05 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Xavier

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1549.4 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.92 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big East Teams’ Momentum Shifts Revealed

As the Big East season progresses, we’ve analyzed key trends to identify teams experiencing genuine improvement versus those struggling with unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

Butler’s shooting has seen a slight decline in performance (Season Avg: 0.52, Trend: Down), which may impact their scoring ability.
Creighton’s shooting and offensive rebounding percentage have both declined, contributing to the team’s struggles on offense.

Defensive Trends

DePaul’s defense has improved in terms of forcing turnovers, although a precise opponent turnover rate is not available for analysis.
Georgetown’s defensive rebounding percentage has declined, allowing opponents to secure more offensive boards.

The MACD momentum indicator measures a trend’s strength and direction by comparing the differences between short-term and long-term averages. In this context, it reveals which teams are experiencing genuine improvement versus those riding unsustainable momentum.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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