Big West Update: Week 16

Big West Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. CSU Northridge, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.027 – CSU Northridge’s poor performance in securing offensive rebounds has become a significant problem, as it allows opponents to dominate the boards and control the game, ultimately affecting their overall success.
  2. CSU Fullerton, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – CSU Fullerton’s inconsistent shooting has been a notable challenge that may be impacting their overall performance, as they have shown improvement in accuracy over recent games.
  3. Cal Poly, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Cal Poly’s persistent struggle to secure defensive rebounds on offense has worsened over the course of the season, indicating a significant drop-off in their ability to limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities and maintain momentum.
  4. CSU Northridge, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – CSU Northridge’s reduction in turnovers has allowed them to capitalize on more scoring opportunities and demonstrate improved overall performance.
  5. CSU Fullerton, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – The decrease in turnovers has significantly contributed to CSU Fullerton’s improved ability to maintain possession on offense, allowing them to capitalize on scoring opportunities more effectively.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Cal Poly, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Cal Poly’s defensive strategy has been a problem, resulting in opponents struggling to make shots and ultimately leading to a decline in field goal percentage against Cal Poly.
  2. Hawai’i, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Hawai’i’s defense has struggled to contain its opponents’ inflated shooting efficiency, a notable trend that warrants further examination.
  3. Long Beach St, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Long Beach St’s aggressive defensive approach, characterized by a heightened emphasis on pressure and ball recovery, has led to an increase in turnovers against opponents, significantly hindering their ability to execute their offense effectively.
  4. CSU Northridge, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – CSU Northridge’s defense has been forcing opponents into turnovers at key moments, disrupting their ability to maintain possession and influencing the flow of the game.
  5. UC Davis, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – UC Davis’s defensive strategy of forcing turnovers on offense has been an opponent struggle.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 8-20 | Elo: 1344.7 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.76 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1447.9 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.90 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

CSU Northridge

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1569.9 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.45 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Cal Poly

Record: 12-16 | Elo: 1446.3 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.45 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 19-7 | Elo: 1541.9 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.97 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 8-20 | Elo: 1342.0 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.44 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1515.8 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.91 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UC Irvine

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1622.6 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.68 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UC Riverside

Record: 9-20 | Elo: 1422.3 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.82 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UC San Diego

Record: 19-9 | Elo: 1616.3 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.08 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UCSB

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1530.2 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.30 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big West Conference Mid-Season Analysis

As the Big West conference continues its season, several teams are showcasing notable improvements in various aspects of their gameplay. We analyzed the trends using MACD indicators to identify which teams are genuinely gaining momentum and which may be experiencing unsustainable trends.

The MACD indicator is a momentum-based trend-following system that measures the difference between two moving averages. It helps us understand whether the recent performance is indicative of a genuine improvement or an anomaly.

Offensive Trends to Note:

  • CSU Fullerton’s shooting has trended upward, indicating a slight improvement in their scoring efficiency.
  • The Titans’ turnover rate has decreased slightly, suggesting better ball control and fewer turnovers.
  • Conversely, Cal Poly’s rebounding percentage has declined, indicating a struggle for securing second-chance opportunities.

Defensive Trends to Note:

  • Long Beach State’s ability to force turnovers has increased, as their opponents’ turnover rate has trended upward strongly. This indicates the team is becoming more effective at disrupting opposing offenses.
  • CSU Northridge’s opponents have shown an increase in shooting efficiency against them, suggesting a struggle for the Matadors to improve their defensive prowess.

These trends will be crucial in determining which teams have genuine momentum and which may be due for a reversal of fortune. By closely monitoring these indicators, we can gain insight into the strengths and weaknesses of each team as they navigate the remainder of the season.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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