Coastal Update: Week 16

Coastal Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Elon, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – Elon’s defensive rebounding efficiency is decreasing, contributing to its subpar performance on both ends of the court.
  2. Drexel, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.027 – Drexel’s defensive rebounding, specifically their rebounding margin and opponent offensive rebound percentage, continues to be a problem negatively impacting their performance on second-chance opportunities contributing to their struggle on both ends of the court.
  3. Elon, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Elon’s inconsistent shooting has been causing problems for their offense.
  4. Hofstra, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Hofstra’s offense struggles with turnovers, particularly in the early stages of games, leading to a decrease in ball control and mistakes on offense.
  5. Elon, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Elon’s turnover issues have plagued their efforts to execute their game plan consistently, resulting in inconsistent overall performance in conference play this week.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Elon, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Elon’s defensive performance continues to struggle in limiting opponent shooting, a trend that poses a significant problem for the team.
  2. Drexel, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Drexel’s ability to stifle opponents appears to be closely tied to their control of rebounds, as demonstrated by their tendency to secure a higher number of rebounds per game, which in turn forces opponents into difficult shots and limits their scoring opportunities.
  3. Hofstra, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Hofstra’s struggles to limit scoring opportunities have been highlighted by their opponents’ increasing success in converting shots from the field, with a significant 60% of attempts resulting in made baskets over their last five games.
  4. Charleston, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Charleston has struggled to stifle opponents’ offense, finding it increasingly challenging to maintain a consistent defensive posture due to this issue.
  5. Drexel, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Drexel’s inability to limit its opponents’ scoring opportunities, as evidenced by a high number of turnovers allowed, has become a significant problem, making it difficult for Drexel’s defense to effectively prevent opponents from converting those turnovers into points.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1466.3 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.84 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Charleston

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1616.9 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.64 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Drexel

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1507.7 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.78 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Elon

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1451.8 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.05 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Hampton

Record: 12-16 | Elo: 1432.1 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.44 (ranked 280 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Hofstra

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1566.7 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.39 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Monmouth

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1500.3 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.35 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

NC A&T

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1379.1 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.68 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Northeastern

Record: 6-20 | Elo: 1389.1 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.29 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stony Brook

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1483.7 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.49 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Towson

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1539.3 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.40 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 24-4 | Elo: 1685.3 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.37 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

William & Mary

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1503.4 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.12 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Colonial Teams’ Week 16 Analysis: A Data-Driven Look

As the Colonial season reaches its midpoint, we’re examining key trends to identify teams that are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

Drexel’s offense has struggled with securing second-chance opportunities. Its Off Rebound Percentage (ORB%) is trending downward from a season average of 0.284, indicating a decline in efficiency on the glass. This problem is affecting Drexel’s overall scoring. Elon’s offense has shown signs of struggle as well. Its shooting percentage is down, suggesting that Elon’s inability to convert field goals efficiently is impacting its scoring ability.

Defensive Trends

Charleston’s defense has been a bright spot for the team. However, its opponents’ shooting percentage has increased from 0.49 in the context, indicating a worsening trend in limiting its opponents’ scoring opportunities. This struggle suggests that Charleston may need to improve its paint defense and shot contesting abilities. Drexel’s defense has shown improvement on the boards with an increasing defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%). However, this improvement has not translated into forcing more turnovers from its opponents; their turnover rate is actually trending downward.

Elon’s defense has struggled to contain its opponents’ shooting. Its opponents’ shooting percentage is up from 0.55 in the context, indicating a worsening trend in allowing opponents to score efficiently.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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