Horizon Update: Week 16

Horizon Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Cleveland State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.041 – Cleveland State’s struggles to secure rebounds are contributing to their problems on both ends of the court.
  2. Detroit Mercy, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Detroit Mercy’s rebounding struggles have negatively impacted their defense, making them more vulnerable on the court.
  3. Detroit Mercy, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Detroit Mercy’s offense has gained momentum due to a notable increase in field goal percentage, which directly correlates with their improved shooting.
  4. Cleveland State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Cleveland State’s improving shooting has been a notable aspect of their performance this season, resulting in a more efficient field goal rate.
  5. Cleveland State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Cleveland State’s improvement in turnover management has allowed them to maintain possession more effectively, which is a notable aspect of their performance thus far.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Cleveland State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.037 – Cleveland State’s opponents have been struggling to score against them, with their shooting facing an inflated challenge.
  2. Green Bay, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Green Bay’s defensive strategy has stifled opponents by limiting their scoring opportunities and forcing turnovers; however, their recent inability to consistently implement this trend may create opportunities for opposing teams to capitalize on Green Bay’s vulnerabilities.
  3. IUPUI, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – IUPUI’s dominant defensive rebounding effort has directly contributed to a reduction in opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities by limiting their ability to secure rebounds, which hampers their chances of converting missed shots into points.
  4. Green Bay, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Green Bay’s defense has been struggling to secure defensive rebounds, allowing opponents to capitalize on second-chance scoring chances and exert significant pressure on their own team in critical situations.
  5. Cleveland State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Cleveland State has shown significant improvement in its ability to exert control over the boards, a crucial aspect of their defensive strategy that could potentially limit opponents’ scoring opportunities and boost their own chances at success.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1434.3 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.90 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1418.7 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.43 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Green Bay

Record: 16-14 | Elo: 1438.9 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.73 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

IUPUI

Record: 7-22 | Elo: 1288.9 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.21 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1450.3 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.24 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

N Kentucky

Record: 17-12 | Elo: 1498.1 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.93 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Oakland

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1526.0 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.20 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1513.5 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.98 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1576.8 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.45 (ranked 158 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1513.0 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.88 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1496.7 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.44 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

HoopSci Analysis: Week 16 Horizon Review

As we conclude our analysis of the Horizon League for Week 16, several key trends emerge from the data. Our focus will be on highlighting the most notable shifts in performance for Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy’s shooting percentages.

Offensive Trends to Watch:

  1. Cleveland State Shooting: The Vikings’ shooting percentage has seen a significant increase throughout the season, reaching 0.55 (Season Avg). This is an encouraging sign for their offense.
  2. Detroit Mercy Shooting: Detroit Mercy’s shooting percentage has also improved, reaching a seasonal average of 0.5, indicating a notable improvement in their offense.
  3. IUPUI Scoring: IUPUI has seen a moderate increase in scoring, with their total points per game sitting at 71.4 (Season Avg). Their offense is becoming more potent.

Defensive Trends to Monitor:

  1. Cleveland State Opp Shooting: Cleveland State’s opponents have been shooting at an increasingly high rate, with a worsening defensive rebounding percentage, now below the season average.
  2. Green Bay Defensive Rebounding: Green Bay’s defensive rebounding percentage has worsened, struggling to contain opponent rebounding, now sitting at 0.725 (Season Avg).
  3. Turnovers for Cleveland State: Cleveland State is experiencing a significant increase in turnovers, with their total turnovers per game reaching 14.1 (Season Avg). This may be affecting their overall performance.

Conclusion:

The Horizon League teams have shown mixed results in Week 16. While Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy demonstrate improving offenses, Cleveland State’s struggles on defense, particularly with opponent rebounding, stand out as a problem area. Next week, we will revisit these trends along with MACD (Momentum Indicator) analyses to further understand team performance momentum within the league.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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