Ivy Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Dartmouth, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.037 – Dartmouth struggles with securing defensive rebounds, which allows opponents to gain possession and hamper their overall performance.
Brown, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Brown’s struggles with securing defensive rebounds are contributing to their problems controlling possession, making it difficult for them to maintain tempo and dictate pace, which has become a major problem.
Yale, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Yale’s inability to secure offensive rebounds has led to issues maintaining possession and launching consistent scoring opportunities.
Cornell, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Cornell’s shooting struggles have become a significant problem, as their subpar performance over the last five games has seen them fall 12 points below their season average.
Brown, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Brown’s improved shooting accuracy has led to a notable increase in scoring opportunities, with their field goal percentage showing steady growth compared to previous seasons as they continue to develop a more reliable offense.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Princeton, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – Princeton’s defense has been struggling to contain their opponents’ poor shooting, as evidenced by a NEGATIVE trend in Opp Shooting, with their performance declining significantly over time due to being unable to effectively limit scoring opportunities.
Harvard, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – Harvard’s defense has been displaying marked improvement in stifling opponents’ shooting, effectively reducing their scoring opportunities through strategic positioning on the court and clever rotations that force difficult shots outside of their comfort zone.
Brown, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Brown struggles with stifling opponents’ offense in Ivy League play by allowing them to shoot at a high rate from beyond the arc.
Penn, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Penn’s opponents are struggling with an increase in turnovers, a problem that stems from their difficulties forcing fumbles on defensive possessions, leading to less favorable starting field position for Penn.
Brown, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Brown’s defense has shown improvement in stifling opponents with turnovers, which increases their chances of maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ivy teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Brown, Harvard
Trending Down (Efficiency): Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Penn, Princeton

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brown

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1441.4 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.49 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Columbia

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1463.6 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.90 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cornell

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1541.3 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.04 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Dartmouth

Record: 11-13 | Elo: 1452.8 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.90 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Harvard

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1544.7 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.80 (ranked 125 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Penn

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1481.5 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.59 (ranked 156 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Princeton

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1476.2 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.77 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Yale

Record: 21-4 | Elo: 1695.6 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.35 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Ivy League Teams’ Week 16 Analysis: Trends to Watch

As the Ivy League teams continue their season, several key trends have emerged from the data-driven analysis of their performances. By examining the MACD trending indicators, we can identify which teams are genuinely improving and which ones might be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

The Brown Bears’ performance is a mixed bag. Their offense has seen an improvement in shooting percentages, with a trend moving up strongly. However, their performance on the boards has declined, with their Off Reb Pct trending down strongly, indicating a significant decrease in their rebounding prowess.

Cornell’s offense has struggled, with shooting percentages trending down strongly. This is reflected in their Season Avg of 0.58, which indicates a decline in their shooting accuracy.

Dartmouth’s performance on the boards has declined, with their Off Reb Pct trending down strongly. This is reflected in their low rebounding numbers.

The Brown Bears’ defensive performance has improved significantly against their opponents, but it appears to be an error. Instead, let’s focus on Harvard’s defense, which has become more efficient, with Opp Shooting trend moving down strongly. This indicates that they are making it increasingly difficult for opponents to find the net.

Penn Quakers have also seen an improvement in their defensive performance, particularly when it comes to forcing turnovers. Their Opp Turnovers trend is moving up strongly, indicating that they are creating more opportunities for themselves through turnovers.

By examining these trends, we can gain a better understanding of which Ivy League teams are genuinely improving and which ones might be experiencing a temporary surge in performance.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryIVY

TagsIVY Ivy League