Big South Update: Week 17
March 2, 2026Strongest Offensive Trends
- Gardner-Webb, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.039 – Gardner-Webb’s ineptitude in securing rebounds has been a crippling issue, directly contributing to their struggles with maintaining possession and momentum, as evidenced by their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and frequently losing control of the ball after loose balls.
- Charleston So, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Charleston So’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ scoring opportunities, particularly in the paint where they have allowed significantly more points than their season average on the road.
- Charleston So, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Charleston So’s enhanced shooting accuracy has significantly contributed to their overall performance improvement, particularly in late conference play.
- High Point, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – High Point’s struggles with making shots have been a significant problem for their offense, consistently hindering their overall performance and contributing to difficulties in gaining momentum.
- Gardner-Webb, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Gardner-Webb’s propensity for turnovers on offense and inability to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes on defense has been a significant problem throughout their season, contributing to their overall performance issues on both ends of the court.
Strongest Defensive Trends
- UNC Asheville, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – The Bulldogs have shown a significant improvement in defending the glass, with their contested rebound efforts being a key factor in stifling opponents.
- Radford, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Radford’s struggle with defensive rebounding is a problem, as they are allowing opponents to collect more offensive boards due to their inconsistent rebounding.
- USC Upstate, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – USC Upstate’s improvement in defensive rebounding efforts has enabled the team to outmaneuver opponents on the boards, a trend that warrants closer examination.
- Charleston So, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Charleston So’s defense has been struggling to secure defensive rebounds, leading to a lack of control over the paint and stifling opponents’ scoring opportunities.
- UNC Asheville, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – The Big South’s UNC Asheville continues to face significant defensive challenges due to a poor opponent shooting performance that shows no signs of improvement, exacerbating its struggling defense.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Charleston So, Gardner-Webb
- Trending Down (Efficiency): USC Upstate, High Point, Longwood, Presbyterian, Radford
Team-by-Team Analysis
Charleston So
Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1405.2 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.96 (ranked 247 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Gardner-Webb
Record: 3-28 | Elo: 1289.8 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -37.44 (ranked 364 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
High Point
Record: 27-4 | Elo: 1680.8 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.91 (ranked 92 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Longwood
Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1466.9 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.49 (ranked 258 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Presbyterian
Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1408.8 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.35 (ranked 273 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Radford
Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1478.5 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.76 (ranked 259 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
UNC Asheville
Record: 13-16 | Elo: 1485.3 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.77 (ranked 260 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
USC Upstate
Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1360.2 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.31 (ranked 319 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Winthrop
Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1580.6 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.38 (ranked 192 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Big South Teams Show Varied Momentum Ahead of Conference Tournaments
As the Big South regular season wraps up, teams are jostling for positioning in the conference standings. A closer look at the key trends reveals areas where some teams are gaining momentum while others may be experiencing unsustainable success.
Charleston Southern’s defensive rebound percentage has seen a decline, contributing to their struggle in limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Gardner-Webb’s reliance on scoring via rebounds is facing growing concerns as evidenced by the team’s decrease in offense rebound percentage. This shift may impact their ability to compete effectively in the conference tournament.
UNC Asheville’s defense faces concerns about allowing a higher opponent shooting percentage, posing a liability in the postseason.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
