SEC Update: Week 17

SEC Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Georgia, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Georgia’s struggles to secure rebounds have been a significant problem, affecting its ability to maintain sustained periods of offense.
  2. Florida, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Florida’s shooting has shown significant improvement, enabling their sharpshooters to consistently rack up crucial three-pointers and fuel a surge in scoring output.
  3. Georgia, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Georgia’s free throw percentage has been improving, which could be contributing to their enhanced scoring capabilities.
  4. Arkansas, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Arkansas’ reduced number of turnovers has contributed to their improved defensive stability on the court, potentially exacerbating a significant problem if that trend were to reverse and turnovers were to increase again.
  5. Georgia, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Georgia’s ability to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game has been a key factor in their improved performance, which has allowed them to consistently dictate the pace of play and execute their strategy effectively.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Auburn, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Auburn’s defense has been struggling to contain its conference foes’ efficient scoring, and this trend raises concerns about the team’s ability to perform effectively down the stretch.
  2. Arkansas, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – The Razorbacks are struggling to stifle their opponents’ subpar shooting, creating a significant issue for their defense.
  3. Georgia, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Georgia’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ shooting, a trend that warrants further examination given its implications for the team’s overall performance over time and its stifling effect on their offense.
  4. Alabama, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Alabama’s defense has struggled to secure key rebounds, with its defensive rebounding efficiency suffering a decline in recent games as a result of its inability to contain opponents’ strong frontcourts.
  5. Florida, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Florida struggles with securing defensive rebounds mid-season, creating opportunities for opponents to gain extra scoring chances and stifling its offense due to a lack of defensive rebounding consistency putting pressure on the team’s defense.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 22-7 | Elo: 1769.7 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.83 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 21-8 | Elo: 1681.6 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.76 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1654.9 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.74 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Florida

Record: 23-6 | Elo: 1796.8 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.14 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 20-9 | Elo: 1622.3 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.49 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1671.9 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.64 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

LSU

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1505.4 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.90 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Miss St

Record: 13-16 | Elo: 1549.4 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.58 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 20-9 | Elo: 1628.7 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.17 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Oklahoma

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1566.6 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.45 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ole Miss

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1543.5 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.93 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1471.1 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.72 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 20-9 | Elo: 1717.8 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.03 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Texas

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1616.5 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.38 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas A&M

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1643.6 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.96 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 22-7 | Elo: 1654.9 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.45 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

SEC Teams Showcase Varied Performances in Week 17 Analysis

As the Southeastern Conference (SEC) continues its basketball season, several key trends have emerged that highlight areas of improvement and concern for each team.

Offensive Trends to Watch:

  1. Arkansas’ trend indicates a reduction in turnovers per game from Season Avg: 0.132 to 0.118.
  2. Florida has experienced an upward trend in shooting percentage, with their average increasing strongly throughout the season.
  3. Missouri’s offense has seen a notable increase in points scored per game.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

  1. Alabama faces challenges with their defensive rebounding percentage declining, indicating an increased issue with allowing opponent offensive boards.
  2. Auburn’s defense struggles with opponents’ shooting percentages trending up strongly, resulting in a worsening trend for the team.
  3. Arkansas’ defense also faces similar challenges as they see a rising trend in opponents’ shooting percentages.

Momentum Indicators:

To gain further insight into team performance, we will utilize MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) trending indicators next week to identify teams genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. The MACD measures the difference between short-term and long-term moving averages of a team’s performance metrics.

By examining these trends and indicators, it becomes clear that some SEC teams are experiencing notable improvements on the court while others face challenges that need to be addressed before the season concludes.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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