Southern Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Mercer, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.032 – Mercer’s struggle to secure rebounds has become a significant problem, limiting their ability to score and maintain possession of the ball in critical situations.
Furman, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – Furman’s inability to secure rebounds on their own end of the court is a notable problem, contributing significantly to their overall team struggles with a -4.2 Off Reb Pct.
Samford, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Samford’s marked improvement in shooting has contributed to their recent turnaround, demonstrating a renewed sense of confidence that may be having a positive impact on their overall performance. This upward trend can also be seen alongside stability on the glass and defensive struggles.
Mercer, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Mercer’s offense has experienced a significant uptick in efficiency due to gradual improvements in their shooting accuracy over time, which should translate into increased scoring opportunities.
Chattanooga, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Chattanooga’s marked improvement in shooting accuracy has been a key factor in their winning streak, as they have substantially increased their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and secure crucial victories.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Samford, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Samford’s improved defensive rebounding, which has allowed them to secure a higher percentage of available rebounds on their own end of the court, enables the team to maintain consistent possession and exert greater control over game tempo.
Chattanooga, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Chattanooga’s defensive strategy struggles to disrupt opposing offenses, making it increasingly difficult to create scoring opportunities through forced errors.
ETSU, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – ETSU’s defensive strategy has been struggling to limit opponents’ opportunities, which is a significant problem that compounds its own difficulties on the court.
Furman, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Furman’s defense struggles to force turnovers, allowing opponents to maintain possession of the ball for longer periods against its conference counterparts.
Mercer, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – The Mercer defense has struggled to limit opponents’ ball control in key situations, a problem partly caused by their own struggles with gaining possession.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Chattanooga, ETSU, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel
Trending Down (Efficiency): Furman

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1509.4 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.11 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

ETSU

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1565.6 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.37 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Furman

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1557.9 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.93 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Mercer

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1514.3 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.64 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Samford

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1573.3 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.44 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

The Citadel

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1310.9 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.87 (ranked 355 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNCG

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1479.8 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.10 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

VMI

Record: 4-25 | Elo: 1279.2 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.01 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

W Carolina

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1464.7 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.56 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wofford

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1537.2 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.79 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southern Teams’ Week 17 Analysis

As we conclude our analysis of Southern teams for Week 17, several key trends emerge from the data. We’ll focus on the most notable improvements and declines in offense and defense.

Offensive Trends to Watch:

Chattanooga’s shooting has shown improvement, with a Season Average of 0.54. Mercer also exhibits an upward trend in shooting percentage, mirroring Chattanooga’s trend with the same Season Average of 0.54.

Declining Trends:

Furman is struggling to secure rebounds on offense, as indicated by their downward trending Offense Rebounding Percentage (Off Reb Pct). Mercer is facing a similar issue, also showing a decline in off reb pct.

Defensive Trends:

The four teams show a decline in forcing turnovers among opponents. Chattanooga’s Opp Turnovers has been trending downward strongly with an average of 0.123. ETSU follows suit with the same trend and strength, averaging 0.174 in opp turnovers. Furman’s downward trend in opp turnovers averages 0.124, while Mercer rounds out the group with an average of 0.156.

These trends will be valuable for teams to assess and address their strengths and weaknesses as they move forward in the season.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON

TagsSOCON Southern Southern Conference