West Coast Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Gonzaga, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Gonzaga’s poor rebounding performance, particularly in securing rebounds and limiting second-chance opportunities, is contributing to their possession control problems as they struggle to limit extended possessions and gain an advantage.
Pepperdine, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Pepperdine’s defense has excelled in limiting opponents’ second-shot attempts, enabling them to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities that ultimately contribute to their improved overall performance on the court.
Pepperdine, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – The inconsistency in Pepperdine’s shooting has been a significant challenge within conference play.
Gonzaga, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Gonzaga’s persistent shooting struggles have hindered their offense, contributing to ongoing difficulties in scoring points.
Portland, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Portland’s turnover struggles are linked to their defensive issues, which align with a negative trend in defensive three-point shooting percentage, averaging 34% compared to last season’s average of 40%.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Portland, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Portland has been struggling to secure rebounds, evident in their poor defensive rebound performance against stiff opposition.
San Diego, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – San Diego’s defense has been facing a growing challenge as opponents are struggling to convert their shot attempts into goals, exacerbating the pressure on the team heading into the final stretch of the season.
Loyola Mary, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Loyola Mary’s performance against its opponents has been marred by a significant struggle with defending against increased Opp Shooting, posing a notable problem for the coaching staff.
Gonzaga, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Gonzaga’s defensive rebounding has been a notable problem this season, allowing opponents to secure crucial rebounds and limit their own scoring opportunities on second-chance possessions.
Pacific, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Pacific’s defense has been struggling to force turnovers, leading to its stagnation in stifling opponents.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for West Coast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Loyola Mary, Pepperdine, Saint Mary’s, San Diego, San Francisco
Trending Down (Efficiency): Gonzaga, Pacific, Portland, Santa Clara, Washington St

Team-by-Team Analysis

Gonzaga

Record: 28-3 | Elo: 1779.6 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.04 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Loyola Mary

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1462.5 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.73 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Oregon State

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1510.7 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.77 (ranked 203 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Pacific

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1429.5 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.85 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Pepperdine

Record: 9-22 | Elo: 1359.8 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.78 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Portland

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1414.2 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.44 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Saint Mary’s

Record: 27-4 | Elo: 1764.8 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.07 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

San Diego

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1351.0 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.44 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

San Francisco

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1555.6 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.97 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Santa Clara

Record: 24-7 | Elo: 1661.3 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.42 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Seattle

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1534.7 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.96 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Washington St

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1472.6 (ranked 221 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.75 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

West Coast Teams’ Performance Trends: Key Insights from Week 17

As we wrap up our analysis of the West Coast teams in Week 17, several key trends emerge that provide valuable insights into their performance. By examining these metrics, we can identify which teams are genuinely improving and which ones may be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Watch

Gonzaga’s shooting percentage has been trending downward for the season (Season Avg: 0.56, Trend: Down), posing a problem for the team as it suggests they are not converting their scoring opportunities effectively. In contrast, Pepperdine has been improving its shooting percentage for 2PT% (Season Avg: 0.46, Trend: Up), indicating they are becoming more effective at converting their scoring opportunities.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

On the defensive end, Loyola Marymount’s offense has struggled with Off Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.34600000000000003, Trend: Down), indicating a problem in securing rebounds and maintaining possession. Pacific’s defense has been struggling with Opp Turnovers (Season Avg: 10.9, Trend: Down), posing a concern as it suggests they are not disrupting opponents’ scoring opportunities effectively. Meanwhile, Portland’s ability to secure defensive rebounds has improved strongly for Def Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.74, Trend: Up), indicating they are better able to disrupt opponents’ scoring chances.

By examining these trends and metrics, we can gain valuable insights into the performance of West Coast teams in Week 17. While some teams are improving their shooting efficiency or rebounding proficiency, others are experiencing declines that may be a cause for concern. As we continue to monitor these trends, it will be essential to see if they persist or if teams can adjust their strategies to counteract them.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWCC

TagsWCC West Coast Conference