Big Sky Update: Week 18

Big Sky Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Montana, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.037 – Montana’s inability to secure second-chance opportunities leads directly to their offense struggling to maintain possession, resulting in a consistent problem with rebounding and capitalizing on additional scoring chances due to their limited possessions after turnovers.
  2. E Washington, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.03 – Eastern Washington’s improvement in shooting has become a problematic trend, contributing to their inefficient offense.
  3. Montana State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Montana State’s performance on defensive rebounding has struggled, particularly in securing second-chance opportunities and limiting opponents’ putback chances, which is a problem that negatively impacts their team’s cohesion and overall success.
  4. Idaho, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – Idaho’s struggle with securing offensive rebounds is a problem that is contributing to its poor performance overall.
  5. Montana, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Montana’s shooting performance has become a significant struggle, with their recent accuracy from the field notably underwhelming as they head into the final weeks of the season.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Idaho State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Idaho State has struggled with securing rebounds on defense, significantly limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities and making it difficult for them to close out games.
  2. Idaho, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Idaho’s ability to secure crucial boards on both ends of the court is having a direct impact on their overall performance, allowing them to exert greater control over the game’s flow and limiting their opponents’ opportunities for second-chance scoring.
  3. Idaho, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Idaho’s defense has been stifling opponents’ scoring chances, with their ability to limit shots on goal showing improvement over recent games.
  4. Idaho State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Idaho State’s defense has been struggling to generate takeaways and capitalize on opponent mistakes, hindered by its inability to effectively convert sustained pressure into turnovers, which is a significant issue given its reliance on forcing opponents into turnovers as a key component of its defensive strategy.
  5. Idaho, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – Idaho’s defense faces a challenge in forcing turnovers, which allows opponents to maintain possession for extended periods, a trend that has been inconsistent throughout their games this season.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1455.5 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.61 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Idaho

Record: 19-14 | Elo: 1472.9 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.47 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Idaho State

Record: 13-20 | Elo: 1392.2 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.65 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Montana

Record: 16-14 | Elo: 1519.3 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.13 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Montana State

Record: 18-14 | Elo: 1498.6 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.21 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

N Arizona

Record: 10-22 | Elo: 1353.0 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.43 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1559.4 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.66 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Portland State

Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1535.0 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.60 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Sacramento St

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1317.0 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.63 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Weber State

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1455.0 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.40 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big Sky Conference Week 18 Analysis

As we conclude our analysis of the Big Sky teams’ performance for Week 18, a few key trends stand out in both offense and defense.

On offense, Eastern Washington’s shooting percentage has seen an upward trend (0.55), indicating improving performance. In contrast, Montana’s shooting percentage has declined strongly (0.46), suggesting a problem with their offense. Idaho has struggled with its offensive rebounding percentage, which has decreased significantly (from 29% to 27%).

Among the defensive trends, two teams have shown notable signs. Idaho has been successful in limiting opponents’ shooting, with a downward trend in opponent shooting percentage (-5.6%). This is particularly notable given their ability to limit scoring opportunities for their opponents. However, Idaho’s defensive rebounding percentage has worsened (from 26% to 25%), as they’ve struggled to grab boards on defense.

Idaho State’s turnovers have improved significantly this week, with a strong reduction in turnover margin (-3.2), indicating a key defensive trend for the team.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC
TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC

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