Conference USA Update: Week 18

Conference USA Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. UTEP, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.039 – UTEP’s inability to secure defensive rebounds has created a major rebounding margin disadvantage, which is a key contributor to their struggles on both ends of the court.
  2. W Kentucky, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Western Kentucky’s defense has struggled with securing rebounds on the defensive end, contributing to their possession retention issues and limiting scoring opportunities against opponents.
  3. Jacksonville St, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – Jacksonville St’s struggles to secure rebounds are hindering their offense by limiting their scoring opportunities.
  4. LA Tech, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – LA Tech’s shooting efficiency has shown signs of improvement, as indicated by a notable increase in made three-pointers per game this season, contributing to their overall improved performance on the court.
  5. W Kentucky, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Western Kentucky’s shooting has shown significant improvement, contributing to their overall growth and development.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Jacksonville St, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Jacksonville St’s defensive performance has shown signs of steadiness, allowing for more effective stifling of opponents on defense.
  2. Liberty, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Liberty’s defense is causing opponents to struggle with their rhythm, a trend that suggests problems for teams facing this team in competition.
  3. LA Tech, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – LA Tech’s defense has struggled to contain opponents, consistently allowing large possessions and failing to capitalize on momentum shifts due to its inability to maintain defensive pressure, resulting in a significant problem for the team.
  4. W Kentucky, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Western Kentucky’s offense has struggled to create scoring opportunities, with opponents stifling their ability to capitalize on high-volume shooting from beyond the arc, as evident in the team’s 27 three-point attempts per game.
  5. Liberty, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Liberty’s defensive strategy of forcing fewer turnovers has taken a worrying turn, indicating they struggle to stifle opponents’ scoring opportunities in turnover situations.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 10-20 | Elo: 1426.0 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.75 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

FIU

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1430.6 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.49 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Jacksonville St

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1492.6 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.16 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Kennesaw State

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1517.3 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.71 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

LA Tech

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1542.6 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.14 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Liberty

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1674.0 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.10 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 16-14 | Elo: 1538.5 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.50 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Missouri State

Record: 13-17 | Elo: 1410.3 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.34 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

New Mexico St

Record: 15-15 | Elo: 1480.4 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.91 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Sam Houston

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1572.6 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.53 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UTEP

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1427.4 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.88 (ranked 270 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

W Kentucky

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1523.8 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.22 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Conference USA Week 18 Analysis

As Conference USA teams continue their season, we’ll examine key offensive and defensive trends to identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends
We’ve identified two teams with notable improvement in shooting. Louisiana Tech’s trend is up strongly, boasting a season average of 0.48. Western Kentucky also shows a marked increase in its shooting trend, mirroring LA Tech’s mark at 0.48.

In contrast, UTEP’s offense has taken a hit in terms of off-rebound percentage, trending down with a season average of 0.237. This dip suggests the team struggles to secure rebounds and capitalize on opponents’ mistakes.

Defensive Trends
On the defensive side, we see significant improvements from Liberty and Jacksonville State. Notably, LA Tech is forcing more turnovers, disrupting opponents’ scoring chances.

Liberty and Jacksonville State are excelling on the glass, boasting strong uptrends in defensive rebounding percentage at 0.755. This trend indicates they effectively secure rebounds and limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.

However, Western Kentucky struggles to contain opponents’ shooting, with an upward shift in opponent shooting averages to 0.51. This trend suggests the team allows more effective shots, placing a strain on their defensive efforts.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA CUSA

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