Horizon Update: Week 18

Horizon Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Cleveland State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.039 – Cleveland State’s struggles with defensive rebounding have hindered its performance in the Horizon conference, hampering the team’s ability to control the pace of play and limit opponent scoring opportunities.
  2. Detroit Mercy, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.037 – Detroit Mercy’s inability to secure defensive rebounds consistently has hindered their offense by often forcing them into possessions from outside the paint, where they struggle with high turnover rates in comparison to teams that efficiently capitalize on second-chance opportunities.
  3. Detroit Mercy, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Detroit Mercy’s improved shooting has led to enhanced execution on offense, compelling opponents to reassess their defensive approaches.
  4. Detroit Mercy, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Detroit Mercy’s ability to limit turnovers has improved significantly, resulting in a notable reduction in mistakes on offense.
  5. Green Bay, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Green Bay’s turnover performance has struggled with a decline in fumble recovery, contributing to their problem with giveaways. This issue has negatively impacted their overall strategy, as evidenced by an increase in quarterback sacks and a decrease in ball recovery that exacerbates the negative impact of turnovers on their offense.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. IUPUI, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – IUPUI has shown a notable improvement in defensive rebounding, capitalizing on its enhanced ability to secure defensive boards and bolster team performance in terms of Defensive Rebounding Efficiency.
  2. Cleveland State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Cleveland State has been facing stiff competition from opponents whose shooting form has become increasingly formidable, making it a significant challenge for them to find success on the court.
  3. Milwaukee, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Milwaukee’s defensive rebounding has been a struggle, as they have struggled to secure crucial rebounds and limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
  4. Green Bay, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Green Bay’s defense has shown notable improvement in stifling opponents’ shooting, which will be a key factor in their continued success and relative strength compared to previous performances.
  5. Green Bay, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – The Green Bay defense has struggled to limit opponent turnovers, which severely hinders their ability to generate scoring opportunities and maintain a competitive edge.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 11-22 | Elo: 1419.0 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.21 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 16-14 | Elo: 1438.5 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.09 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Green Bay

Record: 18-15 | Elo: 1447.8 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.97 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

IUPUI

Record: 7-25 | Elo: 1272.0 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.41 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Milwaukee

Record: 12-20 | Elo: 1450.8 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.70 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

N Kentucky

Record: 20-13 | Elo: 1518.6 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.13 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Oakland

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1503.3 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.59 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 17-15 | Elo: 1498.6 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.44 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Robert Morris

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1588.9 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.27 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 21-11 | Elo: 1542.7 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.37 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 15-17 | Elo: 1475.0 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.50 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 18 Horizon League Analysis: Key Trends to Watch

As the Horizon League season continues, several teams are exhibiting notable trends on both ends of the court. Our analysis highlights the key shifts in performance that will impact their chances of success.

On offense, Detroit Mercy has shown a significant improvement in shooting percentages (Season Avg: 0.46, Trend: Up). Conversely, Cleveland State‘s rebounding woes have worsened (Off Reb Pct: Season Avg: 0.234, Trend: Down), potentially limiting their scoring opportunities and making it a struggle to secure rebounds.

Meanwhile, on defense, there are no notable trends in the provided data for Green Bay or IUPUI that match the given metrics. However, we can analyze other teams’ defensive performances. Cleveland State has seen an increase in opponents’ shooting percentages (Opp Shooting: Season Avg: 0.58), which suggests they may struggle with defending their opponents’ scoring.

In terms of rebounding, IUPUI‘s defensive rebounding percentage has improved (Def Reb Pct: Season Avg: 0.652, Trend: Up). This indicates that the team is better equipped to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities by securing more rebounds on defense.

As we look ahead to Week 19, these trends will continue to play a significant role in shaping the teams’ performances.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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