Missouri Valley Update: Week 18
March 10, 2026Strongest Offensive Trends
- Northern Iowa, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.035 – Northern Iowa’s shooting woes are slowly beginning to dissipate, and it’s having a positive impact on their overall team performance as they’re now consistently converting more shots into goals.
- Evansville, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.03 – Evansville struggles to secure rebounds, hindering their performance as they struggle to limit opponents’ scoring chances in transition.
- Illinois State, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Illinois State’s shooting efficiency has taken a hit, contributing to their struggles with scoring effectively in crucial moments during Week 18.
- Indiana State, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Indiana State’s turnover issues are hindering their ability to score effectively, as a struggle with ball control on both offense, particularly in critical situations, and defense is creating problems that are affecting the team’s overall performance.
- S Illinois, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – The Southern Illinois team’s struggles with maintaining possession have been exacerbated by their tendency to give up the ball carelessly, hindering their ability to establish sustained drives and control momentum on both ends of the court.
Strongest Defensive Trends
- Illinois State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Illinois State’s defense continues to struggle with stifling opposing offenses.
- Drake, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Drake’s struggles on the defensive glass are a problem, as they allow an abundance of rebounds on their own end, leaving them struggling to capitalize on second-chance opportunities amidst a deluge of missed shots.
- Bradley, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Bradley’s recent improvement in defensive rebound percentage has enabled it to control the pace of play, limiting opponents’ scoring chances by reducing their transition opportunities and forcing them into more difficult shot attempts.
- Bradley, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Bradley’s defense has proven stifling against opponents, yet their opponent shooting has become a notable problem due to its continued decline in conference play.
- Evansville, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Evansville’s defense continues to face challenges in stifling opponents, allowing a growing number of turnovers that is becoming increasingly problematic.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: March 02 – March 08, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Evansville, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Valparaiso, Belmont
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Bradley, Drake, Illinois State, S Illinois, Murray State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Belmont
Record: 26-6 | Elo: 1676.3 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.03 (ranked 55 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Bradley
Record: 21-12 | Elo: 1626.5 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.50 (ranked 104 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Drake
Record: 12-20 | Elo: 1538.5 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.61 (ranked 193 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Evansville
Record: 7-25 | Elo: 1357.5 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.94 (ranked 293 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Illinois State
Record: 20-12 | Elo: 1571.0 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.06 (ranked 91 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Indiana State
Record: 11-21 | Elo: 1434.7 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.75 (ranked 197 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Murray State
Record: 20-12 | Elo: 1546.8 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.23 (ranked 111 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Northern Iowa
Record: 23-12 | Elo: 1605.9 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.13 (ranked 63 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
S Illinois
Record: 16-16 | Elo: 1518.7 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.35 (ranked 108 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
UIC
Record: 19-15 | Elo: 1536.0 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.22 (ranked 121 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Valparaiso
Record: 18-15 | Elo: 1506.9 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.98 (ranked 142 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Missouri Valley Teams’ Trending Indicators Shed Light on Key Areas
As we conclude our analysis of Week 18 in the Missouri Valley, let’s dive into the key trends that will help identify genuine improvement from teams relying on momentum.
On the offensive side, Evansville is struggling with opponent rebound percentage. Their trend indicates a decline in this area, suggesting they are having trouble securing rebounds against opponents. In contrast, Northern Iowa’s shooting percentage is trending up strongly, reflecting an increasing value and hinting at a more potent attack.
Turning our attention to defensive trends, Bradley stands out as a team that has taken significant strides on both ends of the court. Their defensive rebound percentage is trending up strongly, signifying an improvement in securing boards. This indicates that Bradley is limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities and gaining control of rebounds.
The opposite is true for Drake, whose opponent defensive rebound percentage trend is down, indicating a decline in their ability to limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
