Sun Belt Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Marshall, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Marshall’s decline in offense field goal percentage is contributing significantly to their struggles in Week 18 of the Sun Belt Conference.
Ga Southern, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – Georgia Southern’s significant improvement in shooting has been a key contributor to their recent success, contributing to their offensive efficiency and allowing them to consistently score points and put pressure on opponents, ultimately boosting their overall performance.
UL Monroe, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – UL Monroe’s turnover struggles have been an ongoing challenge for their performance this season.
Marshall, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Marshall’s improved shooting has contributed significantly to their overall scoring, marking a notable shift in their team strategy.
Louisiana, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Louisiana’s handling of possession has been a pressing issue, evident in their inability to maintain control over the ball, which could ultimately impact their overall performance.

Strongest Defensive Trends

South Alabama, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – South Alabama faces a defensive challenge due to their opponent’s struggling shooting, which has been problematic for the team in preventing scoring chances.
Louisiana, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Louisiana’s defensive efforts are a persistent problem, struggling to adapt to high-scoring offenses and stifling opponents’ shooting.
Appalachian St, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Appalachian St’s defensive performance continues to struggle as its opponents’ shooting issues persist.
South Alabama, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – South Alabama’s explosive rebounding has become a game-changer, allowing the team to snuff out second-shot scoring chances and maintain control by converting defense into dominant offense.
Troy, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Troy’s defense has struggled with stifling opponents, allowing them to gain control of the ball frequently.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: March 02 – March 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Arkansas State, Ga Southern, South Alabama, Texas State, James Madison
Trending Down (Efficiency): Appalachian St, C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana, Troy

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 19-13 | Elo: 1525.6 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.70 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Arkansas State

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1565.9 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.57 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

C. Carolina

Record: 19-13 | Elo: 1477.6 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.24 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ga Southern

Record: 21-15 | Elo: 1517.5 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.79 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Georgia State

Record: 10-22 | Elo: 1370.0 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.78 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

James Madison

Record: 18-15 | Elo: 1528.3 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.71 (ranked 196 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Louisiana

Record: 11-22 | Elo: 1414.6 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.72 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 19-13 | Elo: 1524.3 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.83 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Old Dominion

Record: 12-21 | Elo: 1411.3 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.61 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

South Alabama

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1553.5 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.32 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 19-16 | Elo: 1486.9 (ranked 204 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.71 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Texas State

Record: 19-13 | Elo: 1510.5 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.25 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Troy

Record: 21-11 | Elo: 1596.3 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.51 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UL Monroe

Record: 4-28 | Elo: 1235.7 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.52 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Sun Belt Teams Showing Improvement in Key Areas

As the Sun Belt season continues, several teams are demonstrating significant strides in specific areas of their game. A closer look at the data reveals which teams are genuinely improving.

Offensive Improvements

Two teams stand out for their improved shooting percentages: Georgia Southern and Marshall, both boasting a season average of 0.52. Louisiana-Monroe’s shooting is also trending up strongly, with a season average of 0.48. Meanwhile, the same three teams have shown a significant decrease in turnovers.

Defensive Improvements

On the defensive side of the ball, South Alabama has shown improvement in defensive rebounding percentage, effectively securing more rebounds on both ends of the floor. This should help limit their opponents’ scoring chances. Conversely, Appalachian State is struggling with its opponent’s shooting percentages, allowing easier scoring opportunities against them.

Conclusion

While some teams are showing significant improvements in key areas, others may be experiencing unsustainable momentum. As we move forward in the season, it will be crucial to monitor these trends and adjust expectations accordingly. The provided metrics offer a useful tool for evaluating team performance and identifying areas for improvement.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference