SEC Update: Week 18

SEC Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Georgia, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – The Georgia Bulldogs’ shooting has been struggling with inconsistency lately, indicating a notable issue affecting their overall performance.
  2. Georgia, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Georgia’s inability to secure rebounds has been a recurring problem, hindering their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and ultimately convert possessions into points effectively, as reflected in their struggles with defensive rebounding.
  3. Florida, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Florida’s improvement in three-point shooting has led to better spacing on the court and increased scoring opportunities for their players, ultimately contributing to enhanced overall performance this season.
  4. Arkansas, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – Arkansas has struggled on offense due to an alarming rate of turnovers, which has hindered their overall improvement.
  5. Florida, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – The significant decrease in turnovers has led to a notable reduction in mistakes, enabling Florida’s offense to capitalize on scoring opportunities and ultimately contributing to their improved overall performance on the field, as evident in recent games where they have consistently maintained possession of the ball despite strong defensive pressure from opposing teams.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Auburn, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Auburn’s defense has struggled to consistently limit opponents’ scoring opportunities, particularly in late-game situations where they struggle to maintain defensive intensity and shut down opposing offenses.
  2. Georgia, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Georgia’s struggles to contain opponents’ shooting have led to difficulties in securing wins, hindering the team’s overall performance throughout the season, with their inability to adapt to varying opponent strengths a notable issue.
  3. Arkansas, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Arkansas’s inability to contain opposing offenses on the road has become a significant problem, resulting in its defensive performance taking a hit during SEC conference matchups, particularly evident in Week 18.
  4. Alabama, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – The challenge for Alabama’s defense lies in limiting opponents’ high field goal percentages over time, a problem that arises from their inability to adapt and neutralize these performances consistently.
  5. Auburn, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Auburn’s struggles with securing defensive rebounds have hindered their ability to maintain possession, resulting in a lack of control over game tempo.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 23-8 | Elo: 1763.1 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.48 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Arkansas

Record: 23-8 | Elo: 1698.1 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.57 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Auburn

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1653.9 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.70 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Florida

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1808.2 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.16 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 22-9 | Elo: 1644.1 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.90 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1655.0 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.82 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

LSU

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1493.0 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.51 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Miss St

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1536.6 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.60 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1608.9 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.23 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Oklahoma

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1589.3 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.82 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Ole Miss

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1519.3 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.68 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1479.6 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.68 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1709.5 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.82 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1597.2 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.10 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1660.2 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.89 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 24-7 | Elo: 1678.8 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.37 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

SEC Teams’ Momentum Analysis for Week 18

As the Southeastern Conference (SEC) continues its college basketball season, we examine key offensive and defensive trends to identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

Several SEC teams have shown significant improvement on offense. Arkansas has reduced its turnover rate (Season Avg: 0.118, Trend: Down), a strong indicator of efficiency, suggesting that the team is becoming more effective in managing possessions and generating scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Florida’s shooting performance has trended upward, with an increased success rate on field goals (Season Avg: 0.54, Trend: Up), indicating a more reliable offense.

Defensive Trends

However, some SEC teams have struggled on defense. Alabama is struggling to contain its opponents’ scoring, as evidenced by its opponents’ increased shooting percentage (Season Avg: 0.54, Trend: Up). This trend suggests that Alabama’s defensive performance has become a problem. Auburn also struggles with rebounding, specifically in defensive rebound percentage, which indicates that the team is allowing more opponents’ boards.

By analyzing these key trends, we can better understand which SEC teams are experiencing genuine improvement versus those riding unsustainable momentum.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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