Southland Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Incarnate Word, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.039 – Incarnate Word’s defense has struggled to contain opponents, leading to a concerning number of points allowed in recent games, which heavily impacts their overall performance and ability to secure victories.
McNeese, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.035 – McNeese’s offense is struggling to maintain a strong pace, likely due to their difficulty securing rebounds offensively, which has resulted in them ranking low in offensive rebound percentage.
Houston Baptist, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Houston Baptist’s inability to secure defensive rebounds, particularly in the paint, poses a significant challenge for establishing consistent scoring opportunities and limiting second-chance points against opponents.
McNeese, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – McNeese’s shooting form, a previously noted NEGATIVE trend, has been declining, which has significantly contributed to their struggling consistency and negatively impacted their performance.
McNeese, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – A reduction in turnovers has been a notable trend for McNeese, resulting in fewer mistakes on the court and ultimately leading to enhanced ball control and possession rate.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Nicholls, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Nicholls’ opponents have become increasingly proficient at scoring against them, which has worsened their defensive capabilities and contributed to their own scoring struggles.
New Orleans, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – New Orleans has struggled with defensive rebounding, ranking third in Defensive Rebound Pct, indicating a need for improvement on the boards to prevent opponents from securing second-chance points.
Houston Baptist, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Houston Baptist’s defensive woes continue to plague the team, struggling with an opponent’s shooting trend that causes significant difficulties in stifling scoring efforts.
New Orleans, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – New Orleans’ defense has been facing persistent issues containing opponents’ scoring opportunities as their shooting percentages against the team have increased significantly over time, with a notable rise in recent matchups.
Northwestern St, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Northwestern St has shown a significant increase in defensive rebounding, averaging more boards per game compared to their previous season average, allowing them to maintain control over possessions on their own end of the court.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: March 02 – March 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Incarnate Word, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M-CC, Texas A&M-Commerce, SF Austin
Trending Down (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, McNeese, New Orleans, Nicholls, Northwestern St

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 12-20 | Elo: 1352.0 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.15 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1367.0 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.46 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Lamar

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1399.3 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.15 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

McNeese

Record: 26-5 | Elo: 1685.9 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.29 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

New Orleans

Record: 15-17 | Elo: 1407.5 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.40 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Nicholls

Record: 14-18 | Elo: 1468.9 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.78 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 10-22 | Elo: 1374.8 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.17 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 9-22 | Elo: 1381.0 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.95 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 27-4 | Elo: 1605.7 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.25 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1486.5 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.32 (ranked 262 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 11-21 | Elo: 1320.3 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.96 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1478.1 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.02 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southland Teams’ Key Trends Revealed

As the Southland Conference continues its season, our analysis sheds light on which teams are genuinely improving and those experiencing unsustainable momentum. In this week’s wrap-up, we’ll focus on the key offensive and defensive trends that stand out.

Offensive Declines to Watch

The Houston Baptist Huskies’ offense has seen a decline in rebounding efficiency, with their Off Reb Pct trending down strongly. The Incarnate Word Cardinals have also experienced issues with securing rebounds on offense, as indicated by a downward trend in Off Reb Pct. Similarly, the McNeese Cowboys are struggling to rebound efficiently.

Improving Defensive Efforts

On the defensive end, the Houston Baptist Huskies have shown improvement in limiting opponent scoring chances, as their Off Reb Pct has trended down strongly. The New Orleans Privateers have demonstrated progress on defense by successfully limiting opponents’ shooting percentages and securing a higher share of rebounds.

In-Season Momentum

While teams like McNeese are experiencing declines across multiple metrics, the trend analysis suggests that Houston Baptist has seen tangible improvements in its offense, specifically in rebounding efficiency. Meanwhile, New Orleans has shown steady progress on the defensive end. We’ll continue to track these trends as they unfold and provide updated analysis on their progress.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference