SWAC Update: Week 18

SWAC Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Alabama A&M, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Alabama A&M’s struggle to secure rebounds on offense, as evidenced by their underwhelming performance in rebound percentage, is negatively impacting their overall production and efficiency in capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
  2. Alabama A&M, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Alabama A&M’s enhanced shooting has been a key contributor to their improved overall performance on the court, as their offense continues to flourish with increased accuracy and consistency in shots taken over time, but they still struggle to convert open looks into high-quality scoring opportunities when faced against top defensive teams.
  3. Alcorn State, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Alcorn State’s shooting troubles have led to stagnation on offense, putting undue pressure on other aspects of their game.
  4. Grambling, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Grambling’s struggles with 3-point shooting are causing significant problems for their offense, leading to a largely ineffective scoring effort in conference play.
  5. Alabama A&M, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Alabama A&M has made significant strides in reducing turnovers, a crucial aspect of their team’s performance improvement.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Miss Valley St, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Miss Valley St’s opponents have seen an improvement in their shooting form, making it a challenge for them to score against Miss Valley St.
  2. Alcorn State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Alcorn State continues to struggle defending rebounds, which stifles their overall defensive effort and negatively impacts their performance in games against opponents who excel at securing rebounds on defense.
  3. AR-Pine Bluff, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – The NEGATIVE shooting efficiency for Arkansas-Pine Bluff in week 18 of the SWAC conference reveals a defensive strategy that may be creating scoring problems, ultimately impacting their overall performance and hindering their chances of success.
  4. Jackson State, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – Jackson State has demonstrated a significant increase in forced turnovers, which has directly resulted from improved defensive strategies and subsequently stifled opponents’ momentum, ultimately limiting scoring opportunities.
  5. Alabama State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Alabama State’s inability to force turnovers, a crucial aspect of disrupting opponents’ possession, has become increasingly evident as their defensive performance continues to deteriorate with a notable struggle in limiting scoring opportunities.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 11-18 | Elo: 1346.5 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.92 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Alabama A&M

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1392.8 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.10 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Alabama State

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1386.7 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.35 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Alcorn State

Record: 8-22 | Elo: 1367.6 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.52 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1510.0 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.79 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Florida A&M

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1425.4 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.55 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Grambling

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1384.6 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.56 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Jackson State

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1425.2 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -34.10 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Miss Valley St

Record: 3-29 | Elo: 1166.7 (ranked 370 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -42.15 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

PV A&M

Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1346.3 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.91 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Southern

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1474.0 (ranked 221 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.67 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Texas Southern

Record: 11-17 | Elo: 1414.7 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.81 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

SWAC Teams Display Varied Trends in Key Metrics

As the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) enters its final stretch of the season, several teams are showcasing notable trends in key offensive and defensive metrics. By examining these indicators, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Alabama A&M’s Bulldogs have demonstrated a significant increase in their shooting percentage, indicating a potential rise in scoring efficiency. Conversely, their turnover rate is decreasing, signifying improved ball control and decision-making.

Alcorn State’s Braves have struggled with their shooting percentage this season, a trend that may negatively affect their scoring output. On the defensive side, they are trending upward strongly in terms of defensive rebounding percentage, suggesting they are effectively limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities.

Alabama State’s Hornets defense has been struggling to force turnovers, as their opponent turnover rate is decreasing, which could hinder their ability to generate transition scoring opportunities.

Jackson State’s Tigers have seen an uptick in forcing turnovers on the defensive end, a positive trend for their chances of success.

AR-Pine Bluff’s Golden Lions’ defense has improved by limiting opponents’ shooting percentage, which may be a key factor in their overall performance down the stretch.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC
TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC

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