West Coast Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Gonzaga, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Gonzaga’s poor performance in securing rebounds, reflected by their 70.5% Off Reb Pct, has hindered their defensive performance and contributed to their struggles with shooting from the field, as evidenced by their recent inability to convert on key possessions resulting from turnovers acquired through missed opponent rebounds.
Pacific, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Pacific’s shooting woes have been a persistent and crippling problem throughout their season, significantly impacting their ability to score effectively on offense.
San Diego, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – San Diego’s inconsistent rebounding has become a significant problem, leading to a struggle in maintaining possession and putting additional pressure on its defense due to frequent turnovers resulting from failed rebounds.
Pepperdine, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Pepperdine’s improved efficiency can be attributed to their ability to secure rebounds, positioning them well to capitalize on scoring opportunities following a rebound.
Gonzaga, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Gonzaga’s shooting struggles have resulted in a decline in scoring ability, directly limiting their offense’s potential for sustained success due to inconsistent shot-making.

Strongest Defensive Trends

San Diego, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – San Diego’s ability to grab defensive rebounds has been a key factor in its success, allowing its defense to assert itself and limit opponents’ scoring opportunities.
Gonzaga, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Gonzaga’s struggles to secure rebounds have become a significant problem, hindering their ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities on both ends of the court.
San Diego, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – The San Diego team’s struggling defense creates issues, stifling their ability to force opponents into mistakes by consistently allowing them possession of the ball.
San Francisco, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – San Francisco’s defensive strategy has led to opponents struggling to break through, forcing turnovers and limiting scoring chances as a result.
Portland, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Portland’s defense has become a concern as they’re struggling to make up for their decline in playoff chances due to their inability to effectively cause turnovers.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for West Coast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: March 02 – March 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Loyola Mary, Pepperdine, Saint Mary’s, San Diego, San Francisco
Trending Down (Efficiency): Gonzaga, Pacific, Portland, Santa Clara, Washington St

Team-by-Team Analysis

Gonzaga

Record: 28-3 | Elo: 1779.6 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.04 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Loyola Mary

Record: 15-17 | Elo: 1449.4 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.10 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Oregon State

Record: 17-15 | Elo: 1522.1 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.60 (ranked 203 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Pacific

Record: 18-15 | Elo: 1438.2 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.13 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Pepperdine

Record: 9-23 | Elo: 1351.4 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.18 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Portland

Record: 15-19 | Elo: 1427.5 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.42 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Saint Mary’s

Record: 27-4 | Elo: 1764.8 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.07 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

San Diego

Record: 12-21 | Elo: 1358.7 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.72 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

San Francisco

Record: 17-16 | Elo: 1550.8 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.75 (ranked 134 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Santa Clara

Record: 25-7 | Elo: 1665.7 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.30 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Seattle

Record: 20-13 | Elo: 1527.0 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.21 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Washington St

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1461.1 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.40 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

West Coast Teams Face Challenges in Week 18 Analysis

As the college basketball season continues on the West Coast, several teams are experiencing changes in their performance trends. By analyzing these shifts using MACD trending indicators, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving and which are struggling with unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Struggles

Gonzaga’s shooting has been a concern, with its season average of 0.56 trending downward. The strength of this trend is strongly negative, indicating a worsening situation for the team. Furthermore, Gonzaga’s percentage in securing offensive rebounds (0.773) is increasing, allowing them to gain an advantage in possessions.

Pacific’s shooting has also declined, with a season average of 0.53, and a strong negative trend in place, suggesting that the team is experiencing a downturn in its scoring ability.

Defensive Challenges

On the defensive side, Gonzaga’s struggles extend beyond just offense. Their defensive rebounding percentage (0.773) is trending down strongly, allowing opponents to secure more rebounds and potentially gain an advantage in possessions.

Turnover Trends

Portland has seen a decline in forcing turnovers from opponents, which could be a concern for this team.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWCC

TagsWCC West Coast Conference