2026 NCAAT Round of 32: Efficiency Margin Trend Analysis
March 21, 2026The field is down to 32. Which surviving teams are peaking — and which are playing their best basketball right now? Using adjusted efficiency margin MACD, we track the momentum of every remaining team heading into the Round of 32.
Round of 32 Teams Ranked by Trend Strength
Ranked by MACD (momentum) among the 32 remaining teams. Trend Rank = national standing among all 365 D-I teams.
| Rank | Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Louis | #9 | +22.3 | +1.81 | 15/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 2 | Florida | #1 | +35.4 | +1.66 | 20/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 3 | Miami | #7 | +22.4 | +1.57 | 23/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 4 | Virginia | #3 | +31.0 | +1.56 | 24/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 5 | Nebraska | #4 | +28.2 | +1.54 | 27/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 6 | Arkansas | #4 | +24.5 | +1.28 | 33/365 | UP ↑ |
| 7 | Illinois | #3 | +33.7 | +1.14 | 44/365 | UP ↑ |
| 8 | TCU | #9 | +17.8 | +1.14 | 46/365 | UP ↑ |
| 9 | Arizona | #1 | +37.1 | +0.92 | 69/365 | UP ↑ |
| 10 | UCLA | #7 | +20.9 | +0.78 | 87/365 | UP ↑ |
| 11 | Texas Tech | #5 | +24.0 | +0.57 | 107/365 | UP ↑ |
| 12 | Michigan | #1 | +39.0 | +0.46 | 121/365 | Flat → |
| 13 | Vanderbilt | #5 | +26.9 | +0.36 | 129/365 | Flat → |
| 14 | Texas A&M | #10 | +16.6 | +0.33 | 131/365 | Flat → |
| 15 | Michigan State | #3 | +28.7 | +0.32 | 134/365 | Flat → |
| 16 | St. John’s | #5 | +30.3 | +0.27 | 140/365 | Flat → |
| 17 | Duke | #1 | +43.1 | +0.19 | 150/365 | Flat → |
| 18 | Iowa | #9 | +26.1 | +0.18 | 151/365 | Flat → |
| 19 | UConn | #2 | +31.8 | +0.16 | 156/365 | Flat → |
| 20 | Houston | #2 | +34.4 | +0.04 | 170/365 | Flat → |
| 21 | Utah State | #9 | +22.0 | -0.12 | 198/365 | Flat → |
| 22 | Texas | #11 | +19.7 | -0.19 | 205/365 | Flat → |
| 23 | Alabama | #4 | +26.2 | -0.24 | 211/365 | Flat → |
| 24 | Purdue | #2 | +32.4 | -0.24 | 214/365 | Flat → |
| 25 | Iowa State | #2 | +31.4 | -0.36 | 230/365 | Flat → |
| 26 | VCU | #11 | +19.0 | -0.43 | 237/365 | Flat → |
| 27 | High Point | #12 | +9.9 | -0.55 | 251/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 28 | Louisville | #6 | +30.0 | -0.60 | 256/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 29 | Tennessee | #6 | +27.4 | -0.74 | 267/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 30 | Kentucky | #7 | +22.2 | -1.16 | 310/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 31 | Kansas | #4 | +23.9 | -1.32 | 321/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 32 | Gonzaga | #3 | +30.6 | -1.87 | 347/365 | STRONG DOWN ↓↓ |
Saturday, March 21 — Round of 32
Midwest Region | #1 Michigan vs. #9 Saint Louis
12:10 PM ET | Line: MICH -12.5 | O/U: 161.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | #1 | +39.0 | +0.46 | 121/365 | Flat → |
| Saint Louis | #9 | +22.3 | +1.81 | 15/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
Trend Edge: Saint Louis — strongly trending up (rank 15/365) vs. Michigan (rank 121/365). 106-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Saint Louis +12.5. Saint Louis is outperforming its seed on the trend charts (rank 15/365 vs. Michigan’s rank 121/365). Consider Saint Louis to cover as a 12.5-point underdog.
East Region | #3 Michigan State vs. #6 Louisville
2:45 PM ET | Line: MSU -5.5 | O/U: 150.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | #3 | +28.7 | +0.32 | 134/365 | Flat → |
| Louisville | #6 | +30.0 | -0.60 | 256/365 | DOWN ↓ |
Trend Edge: Michigan State — trending flat (rank 134/365) vs. Louisville (rank 256/365). 122-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: MSU -5.5. Michigan State has the better trend (rank 134 vs. 256) and is already the Vegas favorite. Momentum supports covering.
East Region | #1 Duke vs. #9 TCU
5:15 PM ET | Line: DUKE -12.5 | O/U: 140.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | #1 | +43.1 | +0.19 | 150/365 | Flat → |
| TCU | #9 | +17.8 | +1.14 | 46/365 | UP ↑ |
Trend Edge: TCU — trending up (rank 46/365) vs. Duke (rank 150/365). 104-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: TCU +12.5. TCU is outperforming its seed on the trend charts (rank 46/365 vs. Duke’s rank 150/365). Consider TCU to cover as a 12.5-point underdog.
South Region | #2 Houston vs. #10 Texas A&M
6:10 PM ET | Line: HOU -10.5 | O/U: 142.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | #2 | +34.4 | +0.04 | 170/365 | Flat → |
| Texas A&M | #10 | +16.6 | +0.33 | 131/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: HOU -10.5. Trends are similar (rank 170 vs. 131), but a 10.5-point spread reflects a significant talent gap. Lean with Houston to cover.
West Region | #3 Gonzaga vs. #11 Texas
7:10 PM ET | Line: GONZ -6.5 | O/U: 147.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | #3 | +30.6 | -1.87 | 347/365 | STRONG DOWN ↓↓ |
| Texas | #11 | +19.7 | -0.19 | 205/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Texas — trending flat (rank 205/365) vs. Gonzaga (rank 347/365). 142-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Texas +6.5. Texas is outperforming its seed on the trend charts (rank 205/365 vs. Gonzaga’s rank 347/365). Consider Texas to cover as a 6.5-point underdog.
South Region | #3 Illinois vs. #11 VCU
7:50 PM ET | Line: ILL -11.5 | O/U: 150.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | #3 | +33.7 | +1.14 | 44/365 | UP ↑ |
| VCU | #11 | +19.0 | -0.43 | 237/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Illinois — trending up (rank 44/365) vs. VCU (rank 237/365). 193-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: ILL -11.5. Illinois is trending up (trend rank 44/365) while VCU is trending flat (rank 237/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take Illinois to cover the 11.5-point spread.
South Region | #4 Nebraska vs. #5 Vanderbilt
8:45 PM ET | Line: VAN -1.5 | O/U: 146.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | #4 | +28.2 | +1.54 | 27/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| Vanderbilt | #5 | +26.9 | +0.36 | 129/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Nebraska — strongly trending up (rank 27/365) vs. Vanderbilt (rank 129/365). 102-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Nebraska +1.5. Nebraska is outperforming its seed on the trend charts (rank 27/365 vs. Vanderbilt’s rank 129/365). Consider Nebraska to cover as a 1.5-point underdog.
West Region | #4 Arkansas vs. #12 High Point
9:45 PM ET | Line: ARK -11.5 | O/U: 169.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | #4 | +24.5 | +1.28 | 33/365 | UP ↑ |
| High Point | #12 | +9.9 | -0.55 | 251/365 | DOWN ↓ |
Trend Edge: Arkansas — trending up (rank 33/365) vs. High Point (rank 251/365). 218-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: ARK -11.5. Arkansas is trending up (trend rank 33/365) while High Point is trending down (rank 251/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take Arkansas to cover the 11.5-point spread.
Sunday, March 22 — Round of 32
Midwest Region | #5 St. John’s vs. #4 Kansas
2:15 PM ET | Line: SJU -3.5 | O/U: 144.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John’s | #5 | +30.3 | +0.27 | 140/365 | Flat → |
| Kansas | #4 | +23.9 | -1.32 | 321/365 | DOWN ↓ |
Trend Edge: St. John’s — trending flat (rank 140/365) vs. Kansas (rank 321/365). 181-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: SJU -3.5. St. John’s is trending flat (trend rank 140/365) while Kansas is trending down (rank 321/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take St. John’s to cover the 3.5-point spread.
West Region | #7 UCLA vs. #2 UConn
5:45 PM ET | Line: CONN -4.5 | O/U: 136.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | #7 | +20.9 | +0.78 | 87/365 | UP ↑ |
| UConn | #2 | +31.8 | +0.16 | 156/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: CONN -4.5. Trends are similar (rank 156 vs. 87); the spread likely reflects the talent gap accurately. Standard lean with the favorite.
East Region | #5 Texas Tech vs. #4 Alabama
6:45 PM ET | Line: TTU -1.5 | O/U: 164.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | #5 | +24.0 | +0.57 | 107/365 | UP ↑ |
| Alabama | #4 | +26.2 | -0.24 | 211/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Texas Tech — trending up (rank 107/365) vs. Alabama (rank 211/365). 104-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: TTU -1.5. Texas Tech has the better trend (rank 107 vs. 211) and is already the Vegas favorite. Momentum supports covering.
West Region | #7 Kentucky vs. #2 Iowa State
11:45 AM ET | Line: ISU -4.5 | O/U: 145.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | #7 | +22.2 | -1.16 | 310/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| Iowa State | #2 | +31.4 | -0.36 | 230/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: ISU -4.5. Iowa State has the better trend (rank 230 vs. 310) and is already the Vegas favorite. Momentum supports covering.
East Region | #6 Tennessee vs. #3 Virginia
3:10 PM ET | Line: TENN -1.5 | O/U: 137.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | #6 | +27.4 | -0.74 | 267/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| Virginia | #3 | +31.0 | +1.56 | 24/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
Trend Edge: Virginia — strongly trending up (rank 24/365) vs. Tennessee (rank 267/365). 243-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Virginia +1.5. Virginia is strongly trending up (trend rank 24/365) while Tennessee — the 1.5-point favorite — is trending down (rank 267/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
Midwest Region | #9 Iowa vs. #1 Florida
4:10 PM ET | Line: FLA -10.5 | O/U: 145.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | #9 | +26.1 | +0.18 | 151/365 | Flat → |
| Florida | #1 | +35.4 | +1.66 | 20/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
Trend Edge: Florida — strongly trending up (rank 20/365) vs. Iowa (rank 151/365). 131-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: FLA -10.5. Florida has the better trend (rank 20 vs. 151) and is already the Vegas favorite. Momentum supports covering.
West Region | #7 Miami vs. #2 Purdue
9:10 AM ET | Line: PUR -7.5 | O/U: 147.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | #7 | +22.4 | +1.57 | 23/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| Purdue | #2 | +32.4 | -0.24 | 214/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Miami — strongly trending up (rank 23/365) vs. Purdue (rank 214/365). 191-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Miami +7.5. Miami is strongly trending up (trend rank 23/365) while Purdue — the 7.5-point favorite — is trending flat (rank 214/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
South Region | #9 Utah State vs. #1 Arizona
4:50 PM ET | Line: ARIZ -12.5 | O/U: 155.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | #9 | +22.0 | -0.12 | 198/365 | Flat → |
| Arizona | #1 | +37.1 | +0.92 | 69/365 | UP ↑ |
Trend Edge: Arizona — trending up (rank 69/365) vs. Utah State (rank 198/365). 129-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: ARIZ -12.5. Arizona has the better trend (rank 69 vs. 198) and is already the Vegas favorite. Momentum supports covering.
Analysis by HoopSci. Efficiency margin and trend data current as of March 21, 2026.
