Big 12 Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Oklahoma State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Oklahoma State is demonstrating improved rebounding efficiency, a strengthening asset that positions them to secure extra possessions and build momentum throughout their season’s early games.
Kansas, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Kansas is showing an encouraging upward trajectory in its rebounding performance that is helping to bolster their overall possession efficiency throughout the early stages of the season.
Oklahoma State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Oklahoma State is demonstrating marked improvement in its shooting performance, a positive shift that is contributing to the team’s overall offensive efficiency.
Kansas State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Kansas State is encountering growing difficulty on defense as their ability to secure rebounds on second opportunities continues to decline, presenting a significant hurdle for their overall performance this season.
Kansas, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – The rising frequency of turnovers for Kansas stands as a troubling struggle that is hindering their overall offensive execution during this early stage of the season.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Baylor, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – Baylor’s intensified defensive pressure has successfully stifled opponent ball movement to force turnovers, signaling a significant strength in their evolving game plan this season.
Kansas, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Kansas is showing signs of life on the defensive end by successfully stifling opponents from shooting, marking a positive trend for the team’s overall performance so far this season.
Iowa State, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Iowa State is facing a concerning decline in defensive rebounding percentage as they struggle to secure rebounds on the glass, allowing increased opportunities for opponents to generate second-chance points.
Baylor, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Baylor is successfully converting into a defensive anchor by securing more rebounds against opponents, fostering better ball retention opportunities for their offense.
Oklahoma State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Oklahoma State is demonstrating a marked improvement in its ability to secure defensive rebounds, effectively stifling opponents by grabbing more defensive boards as the season progresses.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia
Trending Down (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, UCF, Arizona

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1753.3 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.53 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Arizona State

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1551.7 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.74 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

BYU

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1640.7 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.40 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Baylor

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1566.2 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.60 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cincinnati

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1576.0 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.53 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Colorado

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.50 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Houston

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1745.1 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.99 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1670.7 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.32 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1660.9 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.60 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kansas State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1487.3 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.60 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Oklahoma State

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1554.8 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.61 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

TCU

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1615.7 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.18 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Texas Tech

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1665.1 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.37 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UCF

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1591.8 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.77 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Utah

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1473.0 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.92 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1578.3 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.03 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Kansas presents a nuanced picture of mixed signals within its current performance profiles. The Jayhawks have shown strong improvement in their offensive rebounding percentage, yet this gain is offset by a significant decline in ball security where turnover rates are trending strongly up with increasing severity. Conversely, on the defensive end, the trend for opponent shooting is moving strongly down, signifying that opponents are shooting worse against Kansas than their season averages indicate, representing a clear area of stability.

In Kansas State, defensive rebounding percentage has become a point of concern as the metric shows a strong downward trend. This suggests the team is facing challenges in securing the glass compared to its seasonal baseline. On the offensive side of the ball, Oklahoma State demonstrates consistent momentum with shooting efficiency showing a strong upward movement that aligns with and exceeds their season average of 0.63.

On the defensive spectrum, Baylor and Iowa State occupy opposite ends of the trend landscape. Baylor is exhibiting a strong upward trend in both forced turnovers and defensive rebounding percentage; specifically, they are forcing more opponent turnovers than their season average of 0.25 would predict while simultaneously grabbing more defensive boards off their 0.732 season average. In contrast, Iowa State is seeing a strong downward trend in defensive rebounding percentage, indicating a struggle to secure the glass relative to their 0.725 historical baseline.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsBig 12 Big 12 Conference