Northeast Update: Week 1

Northeast Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Fair Dickinson, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – Fair Dickinson is showing signs of improvement with its off-the-glass rebounding percentage, a metric that contributes positively to their overall possession generation.
  2. Brooklyn, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – As Brooklyn commences the season, a concerning drop in their rebounding supremacy hints at growing inefficiencies that may hinder their capacity to maintain possession and dictate the pace against rivals.
  3. Cent Conn St, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – For Central Connecticut State, a noticeable decline in shooting performance is emerging early in the season, presenting an analytical concern as they look to maintain consistency across their upcoming matchups.
  4. Brooklyn, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Brooklyn’s persistent inability to execute with precision continues to plague their offense, turning what should be a reliable source of scoring into a glaring struggle that hampers their season-long prospects.
  5. Cent Conn St, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – As the season begins for Cent Conn St, the decline in off rebounding percentage signals a troubling struggle that could undermine their ability to sustain offensive momentum against upcoming opponents.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Fair Dickinson, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.031 – As Fair Dickinson’s opponents improve their offensive execution early in the season, the team faces mounting defensive challenges that warrant closer scrutiny.
  2. Fair Dickinson, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Fair Dickinson is facing a growing defensive challenge as their rebounding percentage continues to decline, which allows opposing players more opportunities to secure offensive glass and extend possessions against them.
  3. Brooklyn, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Brooklyn is facing an increasing challenge as its ability to secure defensive rebounds declines, allowing opponents greater opportunities on offensive glass.
  4. Cent Conn St, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Cent Conn St faces a growing concern as its ability to suppress opposing shooting has declined throughout the season’s early games.
  5. Fair Dickinson, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Fair Dickinson is facing difficulties in forcing turnovers from its opponents, as their ability to disrupt opposing ball handling has declined.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1505.9 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.95 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cent Conn St

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1514.1 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.46 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Chicago State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1363.7 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.67 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1388.4 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -39.75 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Le Moyne

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1417.2 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.84 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Mercyhurst

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1454.8 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.17 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

New Haven

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1442.2 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.25 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Stonehill

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1397.2 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.59 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Wagner

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1435.0 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.90 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Northeast College Basketball Week 1 Analysis: Momentum Indicators and Defensive Erosion

As Northeast teams progress through their initial games of the season, MACD trending indicators provide a necessary lens to distinguish between genuine team improvement and unsustainable momentum. Based on data covering each program’s games so far, several critical offensive and defensive trajectories emerge. This analysis prioritizes specific metrics that signal where value is being created or eroded early in the campaign.

Offensive Trends: Efficiency Declines and Rebounding Shifts

Centenary College of New Jersey faces significant offensive challenges across multiple facets. The team’s shooting efficiency, currently sitting at a season average of 0.45, is trending downward strongly; this metric is classified as “worsening,” indicating that the value being generated per possession is decreasing. Compounding this issue, Cent Conn St is also experiencing a significant drop in offensive rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.224). Like their shooting numbers, this rebounding metric is trending down strongly with a “worsening” classification, suggesting an inability to secure second-chance opportunities as the season progresses.

Brooklyn presents a similar offensive profile regarding shot efficiency. With a season average shooting percentage of 0.45, Brooklyn also exhibits a trend downward at a strong magnitude. The indicator confirms this decline is “worsening,” signaling that the team’s offensive output per shot attempt is diminishing rapidly after Week 1.

In contrast, Fairleigh Dickinson demonstrates a distinct positive trajectory in rebounding efficiency. Their offensive rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.179) is trending upward strongly. This shift carries an “improving” classification, indicating that the team is successfully increasing the value derived from missed shots by their opponents and creating additional scoring chances for themselves.

Defensive Trends: Permissive Adjustments and Turnover Generation Drops

Defensively, several Northeast programs are facing challenges regarding opponent efficiency and rebounding. Centenary College of New Jersey’s defense against shooting appears to be under pressure. While their opponent shooting percentage sits at 0.56, the trend is moving upward strongly. This movement is explicitly labeled “worsening,” meaning opponents are finding it easier to score on their shots as the season progresses for this team.

Fairleigh Dickinson displays a more complex defensive picture characterized by multiple deteriorating metrics. First, the ability to generate turnovers from opponents has slipped; Fairleigh Dickinson’s opponent turnover rate (Season Avg: 0.132) is trending down strongly. Although a lower opponent turnover rate usually implies fewer mistakes forced by the defense, this specific trend is flagged as “worsening” in the data context, indicating a decline in the team’s capacity to create those specific advantages.

Furthermore, Fairleigh Dickinson’s defensive rebounding efficiency (Season Avg: 0.552) is trending downward strongly. This shift is also categorized as “worsening.” By failing to hold their ground on the glass, the team is allowing more offensive rebounds to opponents, effectively ceding second-chance opportunities and undermining overall defensive stability. Similarly, Fairleigh Dickinson’s defense allows an opponent shooting percentage of 0.68, which is trending upward strongly with a “worsening” meaning, indicating that opponents are converting at higher rates as the season advances. These combined metrics suggest that Fairleigh Dickinson is struggling to limit offensive production and secure defensive positions simultaneously.

Other Northeast teams including Wagner, Stonehill, Le Moyne, Chicago State, Mercyhurst, and New Haven have not exhibited specific trending anomalies in the current data set provided for this analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC
TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference

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