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Utah Tech

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	-8.94	239
Elo	1401.20	303
RPI	0.499	181

Updated through 2026-01-22

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2026-01-24	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	California Baptist	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-07	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2020-12-02	North Dakota	H	Non-Conference	W	74-73	1-0 (0-0)
2020-12-05	St. Katherine	H	Non-D1	W	86-48	2-0 (0-0)
2020-12-12	Denver	A	Non-Conference	W	73-70	3-0 (0-0)
2020-12-17	Southern Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	78-85	3-1 (0-0)
2020-12-19	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	90-69	4-1 (0-0)
2020-12-29	Gonzaga	A	Non-Conference	L	67-112	4-2 (0-0)
2021-01-13	New Mexico	H	Non-Conference	L	63-72	4-3 (0-0)
2021-01-15	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	L	49-82	4-4 (0-1)
2021-01-16	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	L	65-72	4-5 (0-2)
2021-01-22	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	74-77	4-6 (0-3)
2021-01-23	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	46-81	4-7 (0-4)
2021-01-29	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	74-89	4-8 (0-5)
2021-01-30	California Baptist	A	Conference	W	79-75	5-8 (1-5)
2021-02-05	Seattle	H	Conference	W	77-76	6-8 (2-5)
2021-02-06	Seattle	H	Conference	L	56-77	6-9 (2-6)
2021-02-12	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	72-87	6-10 (2-7)
2021-02-13	Utah Valley	A	Conference	W	93-89	7-10 (3-7)
2021-02-19	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	59-77	7-11 (3-8)
2021-02-20	Tarleton	H	Conference	W	64-48	8-11 (4-8)
2021-03-05	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	66-76	8-12 (4-9)
2021-03-06	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	56-68	8-13 (4-10)
2021-11-09	Gonzaga	A	Non-Conference	L	63-97	0-1 (0-0)
2021-11-12	Southern Utah	H	Non-Conference	W	83-76	1-1 (0-0)
2021-11-19	Texas State	N	Non-Conference	L	65-85	1-2 (0-0)
2021-11-20	CSU Northridge	A	Non-Conference	L	73-79	1-3 (0-0)
2021-11-22	USC	A	Non-Conference	L	71-98	1-4 (0-0)
2021-11-27	Weber State	H	Non-Conference	L	70-87	1-5 (0-0)
2021-11-30	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	99-61	2-5 (0-0)
2021-12-01	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	99-67	3-5 (0-0)
2021-12-04	St. Katherine	H	Non-D1	W	97-65	4-5 (0-0)
2021-12-11	Denver	H	Non-Conference	W	82-62	5-5 (0-0)
2021-12-15	SAGU American Indian College	H	Non-D1	W	114-49	6-5 (0-0)
2021-12-18	North Dakota	A	Non-Conference	W	78-69	7-5 (0-0)
2021-12-22	Southern Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	59-87	7-6 (0-0)
2021-12-30	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	69-83	7-7 (0-1)
2022-01-01	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	50-64	7-8 (0-2)
2022-01-08	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	71-79	7-9 (0-3)
2022-01-12	California Baptist	A	Conference	W	79-76	8-9 (1-3)
2022-01-15	Seattle	A	Conference	L	68-79	8-10 (1-4)
2022-01-20	Lamar	H	Conference	W	71-55	9-10 (2-4)
2022-01-22	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	85-74	10-10 (3-4)
2022-01-29	Chicago State	A	Conference	W	79-65	11-10 (4-4)
2022-02-03	Sam Houston	A	Conference	L	53-77	11-11 (4-5)
2022-02-05	SF Austin	A	Conference	L	52-81	11-12 (4-6)
2022-02-10	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	69-77	11-13 (4-7)
2022-02-12	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	W	61-60	12-13 (5-7)
2022-02-16	New Mexico St	A	Conference	L	64-75	12-14 (5-8)
2022-02-19	Utah Valley	H	Conference	W	80-75	13-14 (6-8)
2022-02-24	California Baptist	H	Conference	L	61-71	13-15 (6-9)
2022-02-26	Seattle	H	Conference	L	65-73	13-16 (6-10)
2022-03-03	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	64-80	13-17 (6-11)
2022-03-05	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	53-70	13-18 (6-12)
2022-11-07	Nevada	A	Non-Conference	L	71-84	0-1 (0-0)
2022-11-12	CSU Northridge	H	Non-Conference	W	69-63	1-1 (0-0)
2022-11-14	Washington	A	Non-Conference	L	67-78	1-2 (0-0)
2022-11-17	Arizona	A	Non-Conference	L	77-104	1-3 (0-0)
2022-11-19	Idaho	A	Non-Conference	W	81-71	2-3 (0-0)
2022-11-25	North Dakota	A	Non-Conference	L	52-67	2-4 (0-0)
2022-11-26	CSU Fullerton	N	Non-Conference	W	66-60	3-4 (0-0)
2022-12-01	Utah State	A	Non-Conference	L	81-86	3-5 (0-0)
2022-12-03	Weber State	A	Non-Conference	W	77-65	4-5 (0-0)
2022-12-09	Chapman	H	Non-D1	W	99-58	5-5 (0-0)
2022-12-17	Master's University	H	Non-D1	W	100-58	6-5 (0-0)
2022-12-19	Westmont	H	Non-D1	W	80-53	7-5 (0-0)
2022-12-22	Lindenwood	H	Non-Conference	W	95-64	8-5 (0-0)
2022-12-29	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	81-66	9-5 (1-0)
2022-12-31	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	60-71	9-6 (1-1)
2023-01-05	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	58-72	9-7 (1-2)
2023-01-12	SF Austin	H	Conference	L	72-85	9-8 (1-3)
2023-01-14	Sam Houston	H	Conference	L	53-78	9-9 (1-4)
2023-01-18	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	85-89	9-10 (1-5)
2023-01-21	New Mexico St	H	Conference	W	89-76	10-10 (2-5)
2023-01-26	Tarleton	A	Conference	L	72-74	10-11 (2-6)
2023-01-28	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	76-81	10-12 (2-7)
2023-02-02	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	69-76	10-13 (2-8)
2023-02-04	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	86-79	11-13 (3-8)
2023-02-08	Seattle	A	Conference	L	71-75	11-14 (3-9)
2023-02-11	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	71-75	11-15 (3-10)
2023-02-17	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	71-81	11-16 (3-11)
2023-02-23	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	88-81	12-16 (4-11)
2023-02-25	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	69-71	12-17 (4-12)
2023-03-01	Seattle	H	Conference	W	93-56	13-17 (5-12)
2023-03-03	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	61-71	13-18 (5-13)
2023-03-07	SF Austin	N	Conference Tournament	W	80-76	14-18 (5-13)
2023-03-09	Southern Utah	N	Conference Tournament	L	75-76	14-19 (5-13)
2023-11-08	Santa Clara	A	Non-Conference	L	69-77	0-1 (0-0)
2023-11-11	Jacksonville St	A	Non-Conference	W	81-79	1-1 (0-0)
2023-11-17	Youngstown St	A	Non-Conference	L	68-75	1-2 (0-0)
2023-11-18	Lake Erie	N	Non-D1	W	81-69	2-2 (0-0)
2023-11-24	Washington St	A	Non-Conference	L	53-93	2-3 (0-0)
2023-11-27	Lindenwood	A	Non-Conference	W	73-66	3-3 (0-0)
2023-12-02	Utah Valley	H	Conference	W	65-53	4-3 (1-0)
2023-12-06	California Baptist	A	Conference	W	72-69	5-3 (2-0)
2023-12-09	Idaho	H	Non-Conference	L	62-63	5-4 (2-0)
2023-12-11	CSU Northridge	A	Non-Conference	L	75-80	5-5 (2-0)
2023-12-16	North Dakota	H	Non-Conference	L	62-79	5-6 (2-0)
2023-12-21	Colorado	A	Non-Conference	L	71-98	5-7 (2-0)
2023-12-30	FIU	H	Non-Conference	W	96-92	6-7 (2-0)
2024-01-04	Seattle	A	Conference	L	53-70	6-8 (2-1)
2024-01-06	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	65-75	6-9 (2-2)
2024-01-11	SF Austin	H	Conference	W	75-70	7-9 (3-2)
2024-01-18	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	65-75	7-10 (3-3)
2024-01-20	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	71-84	7-11 (3-4)
2024-01-25	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	60-82	7-12 (3-5)
2024-01-27	Tarleton	A	Conference	L	68-86	7-13 (3-6)
2024-02-01	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	81-64	8-13 (4-6)
2024-02-03	UT Arlington	H	Conference	L	66-87	8-14 (4-7)
2024-02-08	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	70-68	9-14 (5-7)
2024-02-10	California Baptist	H	Conference	W	85-78	10-14 (6-7)
2024-02-15	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	61-73	10-15 (6-8)
2024-02-17	Seattle	H	Conference	L	65-66	10-16 (6-9)
2024-02-24	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	78-89	10-17 (6-10)
2024-02-29	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	74-85	10-18 (6-11)
2024-03-02	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	79-86	10-19 (6-12)
2024-03-07	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	79-74	11-19 (7-12)
2024-03-09	SF Austin	A	Conference	L	71-84	11-20 (7-13)
2024-11-04	Oregon State	A	Non-Conference	L	57-80	0-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09	New Mexico St	H	Non-Conference	L	63-75	0-2 (0-0)
2024-11-13	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	90-59	1-2 (0-0)
2024-11-16	Wyoming	A	Non-Conference	L	69-86	1-3 (0-0)
2024-11-22	Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	53-84	1-4 (0-0)
2024-11-24	CSU Northridge	N	Non-Conference	L	79-89	1-5 (0-0)
2024-11-25	Montana	A	Non-Conference	L	66-69	1-6 (0-0)
2024-11-26	Denver	N	Non-Conference	W	68-54	2-6 (0-0)
2024-11-30	Portland State	A	Non-Conference	L	68-71	2-7 (0-0)
2024-12-03	Boise State	A	Non-Conference	L	64-87	2-8 (0-0)
2024-12-07	Utah State	A	Non-Conference	L	62-92	2-9 (0-0)
2024-12-13	Weber State	H	Non-Conference	L	71-73	2-10 (0-0)
2024-12-16	Whittier	H	Non-D1	W	100-66	3-10 (0-0)
2024-12-19	South Dakota	H	Non-Conference	W	92-87	4-10 (0-0)
2024-12-30	FIU	A	Non-Conference	L	66-80	4-11 (0-0)
2025-01-09	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	74-62	5-11 (1-0)
2025-01-11	Tarleton	H	Conference	W	58-54	6-11 (2-0)
2025-01-16	Seattle	A	Conference	L	62-82	6-12 (2-1)
2025-01-18	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	80-96	6-13 (2-2)
2025-01-25	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	66-79	6-14 (2-3)
2025-01-30	Tarleton	A	Conference	L	54-61	6-15 (2-4)
2025-02-01	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	71-73	6-16 (2-5)
2025-02-06	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	72-86	6-17 (2-6)
2025-02-13	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	74-76	6-18 (2-7)
2025-02-15	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	83-86	6-19 (2-8)
2025-02-20	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	77-79	6-20 (2-9)
2025-02-22	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	72-80	6-21 (2-10)
2025-02-27	Southern Utah	H	Conference	L	75-82	6-22 (2-11)
2025-03-01	California Baptist	H	Conference	L	57-61	6-23 (2-12)
2025-03-06	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	68-90	6-24 (2-13)
2025-03-08	Seattle	H	Conference	L	65-70	6-25 (2-14)
2025-03-11	Southern Utah	N	Conference Tournament	W	72-65	7-25 (2-14)
2025-03-12	Utah Valley	N	Conference Tournament	L	57-74	7-26 (2-14)
2025-11-03	South Dakota	A	Non-Conference	W	81-79	1-0 (0-0)
2025-11-05	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	110-65	2-0 (0-0)
2025-11-07	Arizona	A	Non-Conference	L	67-93	2-1 (0-0)
2025-11-09	Arizona State	A	Non-Conference	L	66-81	2-2 (0-0)
2025-11-12	Manhattan	N	Non-Conference	L	75-79	2-3 (0-0)
2025-11-14	Miss Valley St	N	Non-Conference	W	81-75	3-3 (0-0)
2025-11-15	Hawai'i	A	Non-Conference	L	62-68	3-4 (0-0)
2025-11-21	Nobel	H	Non-D1	W	96-48	4-4 (0-0)
2025-11-25	Portland State	H	Non-Conference	L	63-68	4-5 (0-0)
2025-11-29	UC Riverside	H	Non-Conference	W	77-69	5-5 (0-0)
2025-12-03	Santa Clara	A	Non-Conference	L	80-90	5-6 (0-0)
2025-12-20	Weber State	A	Non-Conference	W	82-80	6-6 (0-0)
2025-12-22	Creighton	A	Non-Conference	L	69-92	6-7 (0-0)
2025-12-29	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	80-66	7-7 (1-0)
2026-01-01	Abil Christian	A	Conference	W	79-64	8-7 (2-0)
2026-01-08	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	72-84	8-8 (2-1)
2026-01-10	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	76-92	8-9 (2-2)
2026-01-15	UT Arlington	H	Conference	L	52-56	8-10 (2-3)
2026-01-17	Tarleton	H	Conference	W	75-71	9-10 (3-3)
2026-01-21	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	64-73	9-11 (3-4)
2026-01-24	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	California Baptist	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-07	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-

Utah Tech Offense

Metric	Utah Tech	Opponent	Metric

Utah Tech Defense

Metric	Utah Tech	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	Utah Tech	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.515
Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 175 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 227 of 365 in D1

175th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.169
Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 252 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 126 of 365 in D1

252nd

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 26.130
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 259 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 7 in WAC, 262 of 365 in D1

259th

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.293
Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 325 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 306 of 365 in D1

325th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.513
Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 179 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 30 of 365 in D1

179th

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.165
Rank: 5 of 7 in WAC, 141 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 259 of 365 in D1

141st

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 67.770
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 313 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 7 in WAC, 290 of 365 in D1

313th

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.366
Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 189 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 58 of 365 in D1

189th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 104.94

242nd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.5%

143rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.8%

173rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.2%

128th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 61.0%

168th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.2%

96th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 51.4%

159th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 56.2%

78th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.0%

198th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.2%

247th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.3%

197th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.3%

301st

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 29.3%

325th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.7%

275th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.6%

289th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 74.2%

104th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 51.0%

236th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.3%

238th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.6%

51st

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.8%

315th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.9%

252nd

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 26.1%

259th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.22

202nd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06

221st

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52

175th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 113.87

232nd

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.8%

277th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.9%

222nd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.3%

262nd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 66.7%

343rd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.4%

350th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 56.0%

343rd

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 55.0%

286th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 33.3%

23rd

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.4%

12th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.9%

28th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 28.9%

14th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 36.6%

189th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.1%

221st

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.1%

211th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.7%

217th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 45.7%

35th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.4%

115th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.5%

201st

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.9%

54th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.5%

141st

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 67.8%

313th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.11

151st

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.08

218th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.51

179th