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Utah Tech

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	-11.02	255
Elo	1377.47	333
RPI	0.487	194

Updated through 2025-12-08

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2025-12-13	Justice College	H	Non-D1	-	-	-
2025-12-20	Weber State	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-22	Creighton	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-29	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-01	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	Utah Valley	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Tarleton State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-21	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	California Baptist	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-07	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2020-12-02	North Dakota	H	Non-Conference	W	74-73	1-0 (0-0)
2020-12-05	St. Katherine	H	Non-D1	W	86-48	2-0 (0-0)
2020-12-12	Denver	A	Non-Conference	W	73-70	3-0 (0-0)
2020-12-17	Southern Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	78-85	3-1 (0-0)
2020-12-19	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	90-69	4-1 (0-0)
2020-12-29	Gonzaga	A	Non-Conference	L	67-112	4-2 (0-0)
2021-01-13	New Mexico	H	Non-Conference	L	63-72	4-3 (0-0)
2021-01-15	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	L	49-82	4-4 (0-1)
2021-01-16	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	L	65-72	4-5 (0-2)
2021-01-22	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	74-77	4-6 (0-3)
2021-01-23	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	46-81	4-7 (0-4)
2021-01-29	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	74-89	4-8 (0-5)
2021-01-30	California Baptist	A	Conference	W	79-75	5-8 (1-5)
2021-02-05	Seattle	H	Conference	W	77-76	6-8 (2-5)
2021-02-06	Seattle	H	Conference	L	56-77	6-9 (2-6)
2021-02-12	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	72-87	6-10 (2-7)
2021-02-13	Utah Valley	A	Conference	W	93-89	7-10 (3-7)
2021-02-19	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	59-77	7-11 (3-8)
2021-02-20	Tarleton	H	Conference	W	64-48	8-11 (4-8)
2021-03-05	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	66-76	8-12 (4-9)
2021-03-06	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	56-68	8-13 (4-10)
2021-11-09	Gonzaga	A	Non-Conference	L	63-97	0-1 (0-0)
2021-11-12	Southern Utah	H	Non-Conference	W	83-76	1-1 (0-0)
2021-11-19	Texas State	N	Non-Conference	L	65-85	1-2 (0-0)
2021-11-20	CSU Northridge	A	Non-Conference	L	73-79	1-3 (0-0)
2021-11-22	USC	A	Non-Conference	L	71-98	1-4 (0-0)
2021-11-27	Weber State	H	Non-Conference	L	70-87	1-5 (0-0)
2021-11-30	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	99-61	2-5 (0-0)
2021-12-01	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	99-67	3-5 (0-0)
2021-12-04	St. Katherine	H	Non-D1	W	97-65	4-5 (0-0)
2021-12-11	Denver	H	Non-Conference	W	82-62	5-5 (0-0)
2021-12-15	SAGU American Indian College	H	Non-D1	W	114-49	6-5 (0-0)
2021-12-18	North Dakota	A	Non-Conference	W	78-69	7-5 (0-0)
2021-12-22	Southern Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	59-87	7-6 (0-0)
2021-12-30	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	69-83	7-7 (0-1)
2022-01-01	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	50-64	7-8 (0-2)
2022-01-08	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	71-79	7-9 (0-3)
2022-01-12	California Baptist	A	Conference	W	79-76	8-9 (1-3)
2022-01-15	Seattle	A	Conference	L	68-79	8-10 (1-4)
2022-01-20	Lamar	H	Conference	W	71-55	9-10 (2-4)
2022-01-22	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	85-74	10-10 (3-4)
2022-01-29	Chicago State	A	Conference	W	79-65	11-10 (4-4)
2022-02-03	Sam Houston	A	Conference	L	53-77	11-11 (4-5)
2022-02-05	SF Austin	A	Conference	L	52-81	11-12 (4-6)
2022-02-10	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	69-77	11-13 (4-7)
2022-02-12	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	W	61-60	12-13 (5-7)
2022-02-16	New Mexico St	A	Conference	L	64-75	12-14 (5-8)
2022-02-19	Utah Valley	H	Conference	W	80-75	13-14 (6-8)
2022-02-24	California Baptist	H	Conference	L	61-71	13-15 (6-9)
2022-02-26	Seattle	H	Conference	L	65-73	13-16 (6-10)
2022-03-03	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	64-80	13-17 (6-11)
2022-03-05	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	53-70	13-18 (6-12)
2022-11-07	Nevada	A	Non-Conference	L	71-84	0-1 (0-0)
2022-11-12	CSU Northridge	H	Non-Conference	W	69-63	1-1 (0-0)
2022-11-14	Washington	A	Non-Conference	L	67-78	1-2 (0-0)
2022-11-17	Arizona	A	Non-Conference	L	77-104	1-3 (0-0)
2022-11-19	Idaho	A	Non-Conference	W	81-71	2-3 (0-0)
2022-11-25	North Dakota	A	Non-Conference	L	52-67	2-4 (0-0)
2022-11-26	CSU Fullerton	N	Non-Conference	W	66-60	3-4 (0-0)
2022-12-01	Utah State	A	Non-Conference	L	81-86	3-5 (0-0)
2022-12-03	Weber State	A	Non-Conference	W	77-65	4-5 (0-0)
2022-12-09	Chapman	H	Non-D1	W	99-58	5-5 (0-0)
2022-12-17	Master's University	H	Non-D1	W	100-58	6-5 (0-0)
2022-12-19	Westmont	H	Non-D1	W	80-53	7-5 (0-0)
2022-12-22	Lindenwood	H	Non-Conference	W	95-64	8-5 (0-0)
2022-12-29	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	81-66	9-5 (1-0)
2022-12-31	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	60-71	9-6 (1-1)
2023-01-05	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	58-72	9-7 (1-2)
2023-01-12	SF Austin	H	Conference	L	72-85	9-8 (1-3)
2023-01-14	Sam Houston	H	Conference	L	53-78	9-9 (1-4)
2023-01-18	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	85-89	9-10 (1-5)
2023-01-21	New Mexico St	H	Conference	W	89-76	10-10 (2-5)
2023-01-26	Tarleton	A	Conference	L	72-74	10-11 (2-6)
2023-01-28	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	76-81	10-12 (2-7)
2023-02-02	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	69-76	10-13 (2-8)
2023-02-04	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	86-79	11-13 (3-8)
2023-02-08	Seattle	A	Conference	L	71-75	11-14 (3-9)
2023-02-11	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	71-75	11-15 (3-10)
2023-02-17	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	71-81	11-16 (3-11)
2023-02-23	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	88-81	12-16 (4-11)
2023-02-25	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	69-71	12-17 (4-12)
2023-03-01	Seattle	H	Conference	W	93-56	13-17 (5-12)
2023-03-03	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	61-71	13-18 (5-13)
2023-03-07	SF Austin	N	Conference Tournament	W	80-76	14-18 (5-13)
2023-03-09	Southern Utah	N	Conference Tournament	L	75-76	14-19 (5-13)
2023-11-08	Santa Clara	A	Non-Conference	L	69-77	0-1 (0-0)
2023-11-11	Jacksonville St	A	Non-Conference	W	81-79	1-1 (0-0)
2023-11-17	Youngstown St	A	Non-Conference	L	68-75	1-2 (0-0)
2023-11-18	Lake Erie	N	Non-D1	W	81-69	2-2 (0-0)
2023-11-24	Washington St	A	Non-Conference	L	53-93	2-3 (0-0)
2023-11-27	Lindenwood	A	Non-Conference	W	73-66	3-3 (0-0)
2023-12-02	Utah Valley	H	Conference	W	65-53	4-3 (1-0)
2023-12-06	California Baptist	A	Conference	W	72-69	5-3 (2-0)
2023-12-09	Idaho	H	Non-Conference	L	62-63	5-4 (2-0)
2023-12-11	CSU Northridge	A	Non-Conference	L	75-80	5-5 (2-0)
2023-12-16	North Dakota	H	Non-Conference	L	62-79	5-6 (2-0)
2023-12-21	Colorado	A	Non-Conference	L	71-98	5-7 (2-0)
2023-12-30	FIU	H	Non-Conference	W	96-92	6-7 (2-0)
2024-01-04	Seattle	A	Conference	L	53-70	6-8 (2-1)
2024-01-06	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	65-75	6-9 (2-2)
2024-01-11	SF Austin	H	Conference	W	75-70	7-9 (3-2)
2024-01-18	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	65-75	7-10 (3-3)
2024-01-20	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	71-84	7-11 (3-4)
2024-01-25	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	60-82	7-12 (3-5)
2024-01-27	Tarleton	A	Conference	L	68-86	7-13 (3-6)
2024-02-01	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	81-64	8-13 (4-6)
2024-02-03	UT Arlington	H	Conference	L	66-87	8-14 (4-7)
2024-02-08	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	70-68	9-14 (5-7)
2024-02-10	California Baptist	H	Conference	W	85-78	10-14 (6-7)
2024-02-15	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	61-73	10-15 (6-8)
2024-02-17	Seattle	H	Conference	L	65-66	10-16 (6-9)
2024-02-24	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	78-89	10-17 (6-10)
2024-02-29	Tarleton	H	Conference	L	74-85	10-18 (6-11)
2024-03-02	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	79-86	10-19 (6-12)
2024-03-07	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	79-74	11-19 (7-12)
2024-03-09	SF Austin	A	Conference	L	71-84	11-20 (7-13)
2024-11-04	Oregon State	A	Non-Conference	L	57-80	0-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09	New Mexico St	H	Non-Conference	L	63-75	0-2 (0-0)
2024-11-13	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	90-59	1-2 (0-0)
2024-11-16	Wyoming	A	Non-Conference	L	69-86	1-3 (0-0)
2024-11-22	Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	53-84	1-4 (0-0)
2024-11-24	CSU Northridge	N	Non-Conference	L	79-89	1-5 (0-0)
2024-11-25	Montana	A	Non-Conference	L	66-69	1-6 (0-0)
2024-11-26	Denver	N	Non-Conference	W	68-54	2-6 (0-0)
2024-11-30	Portland State	A	Non-Conference	L	68-71	2-7 (0-0)
2024-12-03	Boise State	A	Non-Conference	L	64-87	2-8 (0-0)
2024-12-07	Utah State	A	Non-Conference	L	62-92	2-9 (0-0)
2024-12-13	Weber State	H	Non-Conference	L	71-73	2-10 (0-0)
2024-12-16	Whittier	H	Non-D1	W	100-66	3-10 (0-0)
2024-12-19	South Dakota	H	Non-Conference	W	92-87	4-10 (0-0)
2024-12-30	FIU	A	Non-Conference	L	66-80	4-11 (0-0)
2025-01-09	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	74-62	5-11 (1-0)
2025-01-11	Tarleton	H	Conference	W	58-54	6-11 (2-0)
2025-01-16	Seattle	A	Conference	L	62-82	6-12 (2-1)
2025-01-18	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	80-96	6-13 (2-2)
2025-01-25	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	66-79	6-14 (2-3)
2025-01-30	Tarleton	A	Conference	L	54-61	6-15 (2-4)
2025-02-01	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	71-73	6-16 (2-5)
2025-02-06	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	72-86	6-17 (2-6)
2025-02-13	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	74-76	6-18 (2-7)
2025-02-15	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	83-86	6-19 (2-8)
2025-02-20	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	77-79	6-20 (2-9)
2025-02-22	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	72-80	6-21 (2-10)
2025-02-27	Southern Utah	H	Conference	L	75-82	6-22 (2-11)
2025-03-01	California Baptist	H	Conference	L	57-61	6-23 (2-12)
2025-03-06	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	68-90	6-24 (2-13)
2025-03-08	Seattle	H	Conference	L	65-70	6-25 (2-14)
2025-03-11	Southern Utah	N	Conference Tournament	W	72-65	7-25 (2-14)
2025-03-12	Utah Valley	N	Conference Tournament	L	57-74	7-26 (2-14)
2025-11-03	South Dakota	A	Non-Conference	W	81-79	1-0 (0-0)
2025-11-05	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	110-65	2-0 (0-0)
2025-11-07	Arizona	A	Non-Conference	L	67-93	2-1 (0-0)
2025-11-09	Arizona State	A	Non-Conference	L	66-81	2-2 (0-0)
2025-11-12	Manhattan	N	Non-Conference	L	75-79	2-3 (0-0)
2025-11-14	Miss Valley St	N	Non-Conference	W	81-75	3-3 (0-0)
2025-11-15	Hawai'i	A	Non-Conference	L	62-68	3-4 (0-0)
2025-11-21	Nobel	H	Non-D1	W	96-48	4-4 (0-0)
2025-11-25	Portland State	H	Non-Conference	L	63-68	4-5 (0-0)
2025-11-29	UC Riverside	H	Non-Conference	W	77-69	5-5 (0-0)
2025-12-03	Santa Clara	A	Non-Conference	L	80-90	5-6 (0-0)
2025-12-13	Justice College	H	Non-D1	-	-	-
2025-12-20	Weber State	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-22	Creighton	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-29	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-01	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	Utah Valley	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Tarleton State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-21	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	California Baptist	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Tarleton State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-07	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-

Utah Tech Offense

Metric	Utah Tech	Opponent	Metric

Utah Tech Defense

Metric	Utah Tech	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	Utah Tech	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.499
Rank: 3 of 7 in WAC, 212 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 69 of 365 in D1

212th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.173
Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 239 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 7 in WAC, 145 of 365 in D1

239th

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 27.030
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 232 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 107 of 365 in D1

232nd

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.299
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 306 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 324 of 365 in D1

306th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.516
Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 193 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 7 in WAC, 145 of 365 in D1

193rd

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.171
Rank: 5 of 7 in WAC, 129 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 83 of 365 in D1

129th

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 66.830
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 315 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 291 of 365 in D1

315th

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.346
Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 153 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 1 of 7 in WAC, 7 of 365 in D1

153rd

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 101.97

231st

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.5%

151st

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 83.8%

151st

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.0%

149th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 59.5%

197th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.6%

91st

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.9%

183rd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 57.6%

64th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 40.5%

169th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.8%

258th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.9%

162nd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 29.3%

319th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 29.9%

306th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.8%

218th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.3%

243rd

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 73.7%

116th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 46.6%

310th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 7.7%

101st

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.4%

71st

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.7%

293rd

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.3%

239th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 27.0%

232nd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.68

181st

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.07

195th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.50

212th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 112.99

263rd

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.7%

299th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.7%

257th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 46.8%

269th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 66.2%

328th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.3%

357th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 55.8%

325th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 56.4%

296th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 33.8%

38th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.4%

31st

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.9%

73rd

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 28.1%

26th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.6%

153rd

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.1%

182nd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.0%

139th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 74.2%

282nd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 46.5%

66th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.8%

156th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.1%

309th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.4%

78th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.1%

129th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 66.8%

315th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.89

172nd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.09

239th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52

193rd