WAC Update: Week 2

WAC Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The WAC enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for WAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

  • Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
  • Trending Up (Efficiency): Tarleton
  • Trending Down (Efficiency): Utah Valley, California Baptist, Utah Tech, Abil Christian, Southern Utah

Team-by-Team Analysis

Abil Christian

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1493.6 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.22 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

California Baptist

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1527.4 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.96 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Southern Utah

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1398.8 (ranked 319 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.74 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Tarleton

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1480.8 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.44 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UT Arlington

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1484.3 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.17 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Utah Tech

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1378.5 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.37 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Utah Valley

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1584.1 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.01 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As WAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWAC
TagsWAC Western Athletic Conference

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