Big South Update: Week 3

Big South Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1401.8 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.27 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 0-6 | Elo: 1420.5 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.15 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

High Point

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1634.1 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.37 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Longwood

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1477.3 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.75 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Presbyterian

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1410.0 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.85 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Radford

Record: 2-6 | Elo: 1474.1 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.09 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UNC Asheville

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1531.7 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.12 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

USC Upstate

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1342.6 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.81 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Winthrop

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1543.0 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.30 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Conference

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