Big Ten Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Ten enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 17 – November 23, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Oregon

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1649.1 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.25 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Indiana

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1610.7 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.43 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Iowa

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1574.3 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.45 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Maryland

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1648.5 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.85 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Michigan

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1662.4 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +43.39 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Michigan State

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1708.3 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.65 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Minnesota

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1514.1 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.42 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Nebraska

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1618.7 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.25 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Northwestern

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1577.0 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.55 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Ohio State

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1583.7 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.01 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Oregon

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1648.8 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.69 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Penn State

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1555.2 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.68 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Purdue

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1717.0 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +43.69 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Rutgers

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1529.5 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.56 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UCLA

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1622.6 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.25 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

USC

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1572.5 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.34 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Washington

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1519.0 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.55 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Wisconsin

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1648.7 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.47 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Conference