Conference USA Update: Week 3

Conference USA Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Conference USA enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1469.0 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.04 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

FIU

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1388.9 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.57 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Jacksonville St

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1526.6 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.65 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Kennesaw State

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1521.0 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.36 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

LA Tech

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1540.5 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.06 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Liberty

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1639.3 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.50 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1553.6 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.89 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Missouri State

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1407.4 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.17 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

New Mexico St

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1521.4 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.18 (ranked 108 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Sam Houston

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1505.7 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.54 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UTEP

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1471.1 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.35 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

W Kentucky

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1535.7 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.80 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Conference USA teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA

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