MAAC Update: Week 3

MAAC Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1372.3 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.05 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Fairfield

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1482.1 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.48 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Iona

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1534.8 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.45 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Manhattan

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1460.7 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.87 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Marist

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1518.5 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.05 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Merrimack

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1524.6 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.39 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1503.4 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.14 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Niagara

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1423.5 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.73 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Quinnipiac

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1564.1 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.65 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Rider

Record: 1-4 | Elo: 1461.5 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.76 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Sacred Heart

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1447.3 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.34 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Siena

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1450.5 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.25 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

St Peter’s

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1475.2 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.61 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMid-Atlantic Athletic Conference

Leave a Reply