Southern Update: Week 3

Southern Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1624.1 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.89 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

ETSU

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1545.2 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.97 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Furman

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1561.0 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.74 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Mercer

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1472.7 (ranked 221 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.94 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Samford

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1567.0 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.95 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

The Citadel

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1285.5 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.76 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UNCG

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1507.8 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.82 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

VMI

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1375.0 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.99 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

W Carolina

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1436.6 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.13 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wofford

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1540.7 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.90 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON
TagsSouthern Southern Conference

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